UNLV Center for Gaming Research: Casino Mathematics

If WSB is a casino, you should probably build a strategy. Here is my perspective.

TL;DR it takes too much work and mental stress to become consistently profitable. Get a day job.
Below are some of the guidelines I make for my own personal investments and I am sharing my investing perspective so it may help others improve their trading views through the perspective of an idiot.
What I think every investor should know/learn about:
•It usually takes years before traders become profitable, but it can be a great source of income if you can game the market.
•It is important to remember that there is always a winner and a loser in a trade. The banks are usually the winners.
•When you go to the casino always find a way to bet on the casino winning.
•Only sell puts when they are covered and you intend to buy stocks from it to use as a potential swing trade or long hold. You don’t want to get caught trying to work the verticals after hours.
•Indicators are great outliers for trading, but should really only be used as a basis to judge your trades at the end of the day. you want to avoid getting VWAP, MACD and IC fucked because when you’re trading at the bottom of the channels sometimes it just keeps going...
•Sitting back and going cash heavy is never a bad move. Sure you miss out on some opportunities but you certainly don’t want to feel the bite of overbuying during an institutional sell off.
•Consolidation can take weeks before it rockets or blows up. Place consolidation calls 1 month out and swings 2 weeks out. Theta usually burns during the last week more than any other time, so doing 2 week trades is usually best unless you expect the market to turn the next day(don’t buy calls for next Friday exp if tomorrow is the only up day you expect) because other people are probably thinking the same thing and selling their options at the same time as you.
•Generally speaking, most people lose money by buying a call or put and holding it until expiration. If you’re lucky enough to ride a daily wave or gap consider selling out or pulling profits to gamble with house money. How many degenerates have been up 100+ only to be down 90% the next day?
•Know the rules(really though, read the rules on exercising options as they vary from platform to platform).
•make your own guidelines, and look for keys or tell tale signs of a head fake.
•If you’re new to trading stocks you should probably stick to trading stocks until you learn what a bid/ask spread is, learn how markets move, and learn how all the small things can make industries move on a macro level.
•Learn how to time the market and compare charts for consistent moves made during specific time periods. Break it down per 1,5,15,30,60 minute charts and daily charts mon-Friday for years. Try to find tendencies and consistencies in charts and graphs. If you think you can read charts and patterns choose a random day of that stock that you have not studied and day trade it using Webull on normal time playback(not on fast forward so you suffer the misery of watching it move slowly for minutes on end only to miss the timing of the jump or bottom).
•There is nothing wrong with holding onto cash and just watching/studying the markets. Look for how different things like hurricanes, war, tsunamis, inflation, deflation, bond yields and exchange rates effect the market in the mean time as that is what has been driving this market on a macro level.
•my personal holdings strategy is 80% cash, 10% stock, 9% options and 1% leverage. It can change to 90% cash and 10% options with a 5-5 or 8-2 split when I am not holding onto stock and run bearish. I do not want a normal market as that would kill my strategy(a market that lacks volatility).
•If leverage is too expensive to buy on your positions, find a stock that has been outperforming based on that sector and short it(assuming you’re call heavy). They usually have the lowest IV but the largest amount of movement. Puts on triple leveraged is also a pretty decent money mAker when looking for leverage(costs more but has a tendency of having larger payout percentages).
•Learn about psychological manipulation and the way institutional investors move the bid/ask spread to create artificial support and resistance lines before canceling their buy/sell orders and letting the stock run. Sometimes they will kill the price after a few minutes just to create a different bid/ask spread with backup orders(my theory is that this is what creates VWAP and MACD flops on a macro level).
•create your own rules that will help you refine your investments. Having too many rules doesn’t limit your trades, rather it increases your ability to invest by increasing success and through this creating confidence required to make the right trade.
•Look at daily bond yields and volumes of bonds bought/sold and at what prices.
•Watch currency exchanges as currency rates will clearly make a difference in profits that rely on imports/exports(almost every company).
•When trading wedges, sell out when one set of options covers the cost of the entire wedge(calls and puts) +10%, and hold the other side until the stock goes the other way. I view it as buying the consolidation, profiting off of movement, and banking off of a head fake.
•sell options within the first 15-30 minutes of market open if the stock spiked to take advantage of volatility.
•buy options around 2-3et as that will usually be the cheapest time , but the last half hour can also be a great time depending on which part of charts you like to work.
•Close options as a day trade if I profit 100% or more in a day.
Personal rules:
80% cash, 10% stock, 10% options with 90% cash-10% options if I am bearish.
Don’t overpay for an option just because you think you can scalp a quick 50%. It’s not worth getting macd or vwap fucked.
If you have to pay more than the price of 1 stock for a weekly option that is 50 cents or .2% otm it is not worth buying in my opinion(don’t hold options for more than 1-3 days at the most because you don’t want to ride the waves if you know a down day is coming).
Be happy with 5-10% returns. Sure some people might be making more, but you just need to hit the right rotation to outperform them.
Do your research. Don’t jump on hype/meme stock.
Inverse Cramer except when he is giving advice to service members.
Always buy leverage because breaking even on bad days is worth sacrificing 10-30% worth of gains to make sure you break even if the market turns.
Know the who(who is the ceo and what have they done), the what(what does the company sell and who are they marketed towards), when(when do you plan on buying and selling), where(where are they based out of), why(why do you think this company will outperform the other companies in the same sector), and how(how did you hear about the stock? Sources matter as they will give you an idea of how accurate they have been in the past).
Buy on bad news and sell on good news. Most of the time billionaires already got the news and sold out by the time you hear about it and panic(causing more panic and a great buying opportunity).
Edit: food for thought: ever wanted to exercise an option afterhours and sell it in early premarket 4:30 et to buy and dump the position? How are you going to exercise those options without cash to exercise them?
submitted by TreeHugChamp to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

List of Known Bugs In The Cayo Perico Heist DLC + GTA Online:

To avoid multiple, repetitive post on all the bugs in GTA online, especially since the latest DLC release, this post will contain all the common bugs and will be updated as more are discovered and workarounds are found.
Please leave any other bugs you've encountered in the comments below and they may be added to the above list, but please note that this is not meant to be a discussion thread, it's meant to list common bugs so players who encounter them know they are not the only ones experiencing them.
Any comments/replies beyond simply listing a bug will be removed, and the user may be temporarily banned from the sub.
Before leaving a comment, please review the above list, and the comments below to see if what you're about to post has already been listed or commented on.
If you see a comment with the same bug you've experienced, please upvote it so we can see how many others are also experiencing that issue.
Posts about any of these bugs will be removed.
​

Bugs related to the Cayo Perico Heist DLC:

  1. Not being able to join friends / error message displaying prompt declaring a certain player hasn’t finished the GTA Online tutorial.
  2. Not being able to deliver various pieces of heist equipment to the Kosatka during missions.
  3. During the Plasma Cutters mission, taking a picture of the heist prep board in the safe house won’t register and you can’t send it too Pavel to progress the mission.
  4. During the RO-86 Alkonost Plane delivery mission and the Velum delivery mission, the delivery checkpoint will be stationed at the casino, either the garage, front door, or music locker enterances will be highlighted.
  5. During the Longfin boat delivery mission the delivery checkpoint will not register the Longfin once it has reached it destination.
  6. When poisoning the water tower on Cayo Perico, players have reported either themselves or other players dying randomly.
  7. When hacking into El Rubio’s compound, players have reported being stuck on a static as the game loads the cameras in the compound.
  8. When quitting GTA Online after doing a Cayo Perico Heist mission prep, the game won’t save your last prep, requiring you to do it again.
  9. The Cayo Perico primary target value will sometimes not display correctly and there as issue the incorrect amount of money for stealing the primary target on hard mode.
  10. In the Cayo Perico heist finale, selecting the drainage point as your entrance into the compound won’t register correctly on your map, with the highlighted icon being the main entrance rather than the back.
  11. All of the Pariah’s spoilers won’t display visually for any player.
  12. When using the track pad to open the interaction menu on the PS5, the game soft locks you out of using your interaction menu again.
  13. When escaping the compound, sometimes the boats at both the main dock and north dock won’t spawn.
  14. Killing the juggernuat may cause the alarms to go off in the compound, even if done stealthy.
  15. Both the Tom Conners missions and the English Dave missions sometimes bug up and don't allow you to deliver an objective to the yellow circle.
  16. When entering the compound, plyers are reporting disconnects, either the host of the heist leaves the game or another team member will leave randomly.
  17. When leaving the compound, the game will not give you a way to escape, leaving you softlocked in the compound.
  18. In the heist finale screen, platers report not being able to buy a heist support crew.
  19. When completing the Cayo Peico heist, players report that they discount from the game as soon as the heist is finished, leaving them without their payment.
  20. Some players report that the payouts are incorrect when being divided out to players, as an example, a 30/70 payout will change to a 15/85 payout when the heist ends.
  21. Some players report losing their payout as soon a they reset the game.
  22. Prep missions for the Cayo Perico heist will not start randomly.
  23. During the Alkonost setup mission the laptop needed to progress the prep mission will not spawn.
  24. During the Alkonost setup mission the plane will start smoking instantly when leaving the hanger, causing the plane to prematurely blow up before the mission ends.
  25. When scoping out Cayo Perico for the second time, (steal the plane from the drug dealers,) the yellow dot mission marker will not display, not allowing the player to fly to Cayo Perico.
  26. During the scope-out mission for Cayo Perico, players report the supply truck not spawning in.
  27. When collecting the Chakra Stones for English Dave, collecting all he stones will not prompt the next mission objective.
  28. When trying to obtain the safe codes from the head of security the casino penthouse, players report the main target not spawning, effectivly softlocking the player in the penthouse.
  29. "Invisible guards" patrol the compound after you rob it, resulting in your player character getting caught.
  30. Guards will sometimes not show up on the radar when on the Cayo Perico heist finale.
  31. Players report different weapon loadouts, entry points, and exit points on the final heist rather than what they choose on the finale screen.
  32. Players report that when entering the drainage pipe and surfacing into the compound, the game breaks stealth and puts you into combat.
  33. The Madrazo files will sometimes get replaced with an entirely different target all together on a first run of the Cayo Perico heist.
  34. Delivering anything to the Music Locker will sometimes not work.

Bugs related to the Casino Heist DLC and GTA Online Broadly:

  1. Cannot deliver heist prep equipment: The vehicle will enter the yellow circle and nothing will happen.
  2. Cannot deliver product from businesses: The drop/delivery won't register, or you enter the delivery circle and it won't register.
  3. Cannot deliver Business Battle goods: Will not register when entering the yellow circle.
  4. Falling through the map.
  5. Getting stuck in the man trap or spawning under the map during the Casino Heist, or being disconnected.
  6. Oppressor MKI, or any car floating in the air.
  7. Flying over the water and respawning on the beach.
  8. Changing lobbies but being put back into the same one.
  9. Not receiving Elite bonuses after completing the Casino Heist.
  10. Starting a Casino Heist and having no objective point on the map, causing players to have to leave the lobby.
  11. Having to setup the Arcade again after previously doing the setup mission.
  12. Vehicles/aircraft not spawning after being requested either from the mechanic, Ms. Baker, or through the interaction menu.
  13. Nightclub technicians will stop producing certain products.
  14. Certain vehicles losing their resistance to rockets/explosives. MOC, Avenger, etc...
  15. Infinite loading screens
  16. White screening during the Casino Heist end screens.
  17. Heist cuts not being properly distributed after completing Heists.
  18. Casino Heist being stuck once you leave the arcade: Can't move, etc...
  19. Rewards in Arena Wars, or other jobs, not being properly calculated for the person in first place.
  20. Trade prices not unlocking after completing the Casino Heist.
  21. When searching for a casino heist through quick job in your cellphone, there's a chance it bugs out and upon joining the room, you're unable to see the finale board where you'd normally see the percentages and ready status.
  22. On silent and sneaky, there's a chance the guards that are supposed to be moving around and patrolling stand completely still. This is both helpful and annoying in different parts of the heist and if you haven't got duggan shipments completed, you're pretty much fucked or forced to get creative.
  23. On Big Con, sometimes the exit disguises don't spawn even though the run was done completely undetected (I've experienced this with gruppe sechs entry).
  24. When collecting daily vault, sometimes it might happen that you get stuck in the animation without being able to stop.
  25. The stockade sometimes spawns in the wrong arcade.
  26. Getting stuck in an endless dancing loop during the Casino Heist setup for the level 2 keycards.
  27. Incorrect getaway vehicles will spawn for the Casino Heist.
  28. In Sumo(Remix) the wrong team will be awarded the win.
  29. Mechanic will sometimes not spawn and the player will not be able to modify their vehicles.
  30. MC business raids not sending message to players.
  31. Dying during the explosives prep mission for the Casino heist can lead to a long, or infinite respawn.
  32. During the Prison Break Heist Rashkovsky will not move, be invisible, or die after parachuting from the plane at the end of the Heist.
​
Please report bugs directly to Rockstar You can also link this post to them as well.
If you have lost money due to a bug, please open a support ticket.
-7DeadlyFetishes
submitted by 7DeadlyFetishes to gtaonline [link] [comments]

[TRADING PSYCHOLOGY] Nobody ever takes a trade thinking it's going to be a loser

I spent several hours this past week coaching traders at my prop firm. And something caught my attention…
Every single one of these traders needed help with the same thing.
It has to do with what I call the “reverse” gambler’s fallacy. And it’s something many traders struggle with.
Today, I’ll show you how to get this common obstacle under control… and start earning more consistent returns year after year…
What Most New Traders Get Wrong
The obstacle I’m talking about is trading psychology. It’s a very broad term used to describe the emotional side of trading.
Almost all new traders believe the most important part of trading is being able to analyze markets like a pro.
On the surface, this logic makes sense. After all, if you can reliably forecast which direction to take on a trade, the money should take care of itself… right?
What these novices don’t yet understand is that something special happens the moment you commit your money to a trade…
You start feeling things.
Whether it’s fear, excitement, anxiety, or a mix of all three, no one is immune to these emotions. And they can wreak havoc on even the best planned trades.
You may be able to call the direction, the timing, and the target price to perfection… But it can all be for nothing if you are unable to stick to your trade plan.
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen traders plan out a great trade… But then ended up somehow losing money, or not being in the market when the move they’d forecast played out.
So how do you beat your emotions to become a better, more consistent trader? It comes down to the three key parts of trading. Let me explain…
The Three-Legged Stool of Trading
I think of trading as a three-legged stool.
Your methodology/strategy for picking trades is the first leg. Your risk- and trade-management strategy is the second leg. And the third leg is your trading psychology.
In my experience, most traders focus on the first leg (strategy and methodology), and they neglect the other two legs. But the stool needs all three legs to stand on its own.
Over the years, I’ve honed my own proprietary method to develop well-rounded traders. Here’s what I’ve learned…
The first fundamental building block of a profitable trader is to establish a proven strategy/methodology you can use to identify good trades. In my experience, everything follows from this foundation.
How you manage your risk and your trades should be determined by the strategies you employ. Your trading psychology likewise will be influenced by your approach to risk and trade management.
I’ve seen other trading instructors assign arbitrary percentage values to the three legs of the trading stool. Usually these values are divided up like this: 30% to the level of importance on the analytical strategy, 30% to risk and trade management, and 40% to trading psychology.
But I don’t believe that any one leg is more important than the other. And yet I’ve found that, more often than not, traders neglect risk/trade management and psychology.
So how do you stop neglecting these two important areas to become a more well-rounded trader? That’s where our reverse gambler’s fallacy comes in…

Time to Ditch the Casino Mentality
There is one block that seems to stop traders from progressing to working on the other two legs.
That is, they don’t know how to flip the switch from thinking about their trades as individual trades in a vacuum… to thinking about them as a collection that relies on a statistical edge to net a profit.
Most traders run into this problem at some point in their careers. And if you’re frustrated with your trading right now, chances are you may be struggling with this, too.
It’s known as the casino mentality. And it’s the same mindset that amateur gamblers will take with them into Caesars Palace or the Bellagio.
It doesn’t matter if they’re seated at the blackjack table or standing over the roulette wheel. Most gamblers believe that the hand or spin they are about to play is the opportunity to hit a winner.
After all, if the roulette wheel has landed four black spins in a row, the next one surely must be red, right?
In reality, the chances of the roulette ball landing on black or red is even, at about 47.4% each. This means each spin is independent of the last.
This is also known as the gambler’s fallacy. What’s interesting is that I’ve observed a kind of reverse gambler’s fallacy from many traders…
This occurs when a trader, who does in fact have a statistically proven strategy, goes on a losing streak… And then instead of continuing to trust their strategy, they abandon it altogether.
How to Avoid the “Reverse” Gambler’s Fallacy
I saw this logical fallacy in effect this past week during one of my coaching calls.
The trader I was coaching had recently taken a technical setup that simply did not work. He was convinced he had done something wrong and wanted my help in improving his analysis.
But his analysis was great.
He didn’t do anything wrong in identifying the setup, which was textbook in nature. But the setup looked so good that, when it resulted in a loss, the trader was convinced that he was the problem… That he did something wrong.
The lesson I imparted to him, which I now want to pass on to you, is this very simple truth…
Nobody, and I mean nobody, ever takes a trade thinking it is going to be a loser. Every single trade you take will be because you thought it would make you money.
Despite this feeling of confidence, out of 100 trades, you’d be lucky to win 50% of them.
That’s why a great trader is not defined by what percentage of their trades end up as winners or losers. A great trader is defined by whether or not they are net profitable after taking 100 trades.
If you win roughly as many trades as you lose, but your winners make you 2x or 3x the amount of money you give back on your losers, you will end up with a nice profit at the end of the year.
Remember, nobody ever takes a trade thinking it is not going to work out. This is why it is absolutely crucial to abandon the idea of thinking about your trades as individual trades.
Instead, start taking a more data-driven, statistical approach to your trading. What do I mean by that?
Keeping a longer-term perspective on your trading is the key to longevity in this business. What your numbers look like over the next 100, 200, or 300 trades is far more relevant and important than losing your cool because you lost a handful of trades in a row.
Of course, to be able to make it to 300 trades, you must have a rock-solid risk management plan in place.
I don’t see gamblers at the casino take a professional approach very often. It’s rare to see someone bet small and stick to the odds on every play. It’s far more common for gamblers to be all over the place with the size of their bets.
They may start off betting small, but after winning a couple of hands of blackjack, they get overconfident and take an outsized bet. Sure enough, on that next hand they go bust while the house just happens to hit blackjack.
This is how casinos make money from gamblers. And it’s how the market parts amateur traders from their capital.
No doubt, it takes a lot of hard work and discipline to make the transition from amateur to professional. But, I promise you, the rewards make it all worthwhile. Until next time.
Regards,
submitted by ParallaxFX to Forex [link] [comments]

DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) - Deep Dive Research - Part 1

TL:DR
Hello, welcome to my first deep dive write up.
My name’s Mark and I’m an accountant with a passion for investing. About two years ago, I used to work as an auditor at a public accounting firm and have been behind the scenes at many different publicly traded and privately held companies in the U.S. My goal is to bring my unique perspective from that past experience, my current experience working in a new role at a large corporation, and my understanding of accounting to help break down some of the most exciting growth stocks on the market today.
I’m a long-term investor. I am focused on finding great companies and holding them for a long time. I’m willing to endure volatility, crazy price drops, and everything that comes with this approach as long as the facts that led me to originally invest and believe in that company have not changed. If you want to learn more about this approach. I recommend reading the book “100 Baggers” by Chris Mayer.
Introduction
I think it’s fitting that my first stock pick has to do with sports. Sports has been a part of my life since I could walk at the age of 2. First with baseball and soccer, and then later in my childhood with golf. I’ve always played American football and basketball for fun as well and have always been an avid fan of all the major sports in the US.
I started playing fantasy sports (mostly just fantasy football) about 6 years ago and have always enjoyed it. Traditionally, with fantasy football you draft a team at the beginning of the year and those are your players for the rest of the season. If you have a bad draft, oh well. You can try to improve your team with trades and free agent additions but it is tough. Leagues usually consist of 10-14 teams (each managed by an individual) and there’s obviously only one winner at the end of the season (about 4 months after the draft). This can lead to the managers of the lower performing teams losing interest as the season wanes on. I believe DraftKings’ (DK) founders saw this issue and saw an opportunity. Enter, daily fantasy sports. Now, with the DK platform you can draft a new team every week. Or if you want, every day. This allows fans of fantasy sports to engage at whichever point of the season they want and at varying financial stakes.
The Thesis Statement
For every stock pick I make, I want to provide a quick thesis statement that can serve as a reminder for why I’m buying and holding that stock for the long term. I’ll always aim to make it just a few sentences long so it can easily be remembered and internalized. This helps during times when the price may sporadically drop and you need to remember why you’re holding this position.
The thesis statement I have come up with for DK is as follows:
“DraftKings: The leader in allowing fans to engage financially with their favorite sports, teams, and players. Having money at stake makes the game a lot more interesting to watch. The era of daily fantasy sports games, online sports betting, and online betting (outside of sports), is just getting started and DK is as well positioned (or better positioned) than anyone to capitalize off of this trend.”
Notice how I said “allowing fans to engage financially” as the first sentence and not necessarily “allowing fans to gamble”. There’s a reason for that. According to US Federal Law, Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) contests have specifically been exempted from the prohibitions of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA). DK has always been, and I believe will continue to be DFS contests 1st, sports betting 2nd, and other forms of gambling/entertainment 3rd. It is noteworthy that states at an individual level can still deem DFS contests illegal if they so wish, but as of this writing (11/26/20), 43 of the 50 US States allow DFS contests and DK, accordingly, is offering DFS contests in all 43 of those US States.
I’ll try to clarify the difference between DFS contests and sports betting real quick:
DFS Contest – Pay a pre-set entry fee to enter a contest. All entry fees go towards “The Pot”. “Draft” 9 players to be on your “Team” for 1 week. Enter your “Roster” into a contest with other players (could range from 1 other person to 1,000s of people, the DK user can choose). Whichever “Roster” amasses the most points for that week out of all contestants wins. The winner will get the highest payout, and depending on the nature of the contest, other top finishers will receive smaller payouts as well.
Sports Gambling – Team A is considered a 10 point favorite to defeat Team B. This means that Team A is expected, by the professional gambling line setters, to outscore Team B by 10 points. This is known as a point spread. You can bet on the underdog or the favorite. If you bet on the favorite, they have to win by more than 10 points for you to win the bet. If you bet on the underdog, you will win the bet as long as the underdog keeps the game within less than a 10 point defeat.
These are just a couple simple examples to help you see the difference. Sports Gambling (the 2nd priority of DK) is a very lucrative market just as the DFS contests are. However, in the US, Federal Laws and regulations are a lot stricter on Sports Gambling than they are on DFS. As of this writing (11/27/20), 22 states (including the District of Columbia) out of 51 possible allow sports gambling.
DK is still in the infancy stages of getting their sports gambling business going. In the 22 states where they could potentially operate, they currently have a sports gambling offering in 11 of those states. The sports gambling business model for DK can be broken into two main offerings – mobile sports betting, and retail sports betting. Mobile sports betting means you can place a sports bet online from the comfort of your own home, while retail sports betting means you must go to a casino and place a bet with the sportsbook in person. I personally believe mobile sports betting is the real potential cash cow for DK out of the two types of sports betting offerings due to the convenience and ease of access. DK is currently working on and encouraging customers to lobby their state lawmakers to legalize sports gambling in more states.
How DK makes money
At the very least, before you invest in a company, you better understand how they make money. In Chris Mayers’ excellent book, 100 Baggers, that I mentioned above, he continually references top line revenue growth as one of the main common indicators of a possible 100 Bagger. This isn’t to tell you that any stock I pick will be a 100 Bagger just because it has great top line revenue growth, but if I am looking at a growth stock to hold for the long term, revenue growth is one of the first things I look at.
For DK, their means of making money is quite simple. I already went into detail above about DFS Contests and Sports Gambling. In DK’s latest 10-Q filing with the SEC (filed 11/13/20), revenue is broken out into two main streams: Online Gaming and Gaming Software.
Online Gaming (82% of Total Revenue for 9 months ended 9/30/20):
Online gaming is the true core business of DK and includes the aforementioned DFS Contests, Sports Gambling and additional gambling (non-sports) opportunities. DK refers to their additional gambling (non-sports) as “iGaming” or “online casino”.
For the 9 months ended 9/30/20, Online Gaming revenue totaled $239M, up 30% YoY from $184M in the same prior year period. Keep in mind, that this is an increase that happened during a COVID-19 global pandemic that delayed and shortened many professional sports seasons.
Online gaming revenue is earned in a few ways that are slightly different, but very similar overall. In order to enter a DFS contest, a customer must pay an entry fee. DFS revenue is generated from these entry fees collected, net of prize payouts and customer incentives awarded to users. In order to place a sports bet (sports gambling), a customer places a wager with a DK Sportsbook. The DK Sportsbook sets odds for each wager that builds in a theoretical margin allowing DK to profit. Sports gambling revenue is generated from wagers collected from customers, net of payouts and incentives awarded to winning customers. The last form of online gaming revenue is earned in similar fashion to a land-based casino, offering online versions of casino games such as blackjack, roulette, and slot machines.
Gaming Software (18% of Total Revenue for 9 months ended 9/30/20):
While the Online Gaming revenue stream mentioned above is a Business to Consumer (B2C) model, the Gaming Software revenue stream is a Business to Business (B2B) model. The Gaming Software side of the business was born out of the acquisition of SBTech, a company from the Isle of Man (near the UK) founded in 2007 that has 12+ years of experience providing online sports betting platforms to clients all over the world. The acquisition occurred as part of the SPAC driven IPO in April of 2020 that combined “the old DK company” with SBTech so that they now are “the new DK company” listed as DKNG on the NASDAQ. SBTech is a far more important part of the story than just being 18% of today’s revenue. The reason for this is because DK will eventually (planned mid-late 2021) be migrating all of their DFS and gambling offerings onto SBTech’s online platforms. Currently, for DFS, DK uses their own proprietary platform but that will move to SBTech with the migration. Currently, for online gambling, DK uses Kambi, the same online gambling platform that services Penn Gaming (PENN), a DK rival. But that’s enough about the software migration for now, back to the Gaming Software revenue.
The Gaming Software revenue stream for DK is essentially a continuation of SBTechs’ B2B business model. DK contracts with business customers to provide sports and casino betting software solutions. DK typically enters two different type of arrangements with B2B customers when selling the gaming software:
  1. Direct Customer Contract Revenue: In this type of transaction, the software is sold directly to a business (casino for example) that wants to use the software for their own gambling operations. This revenue is generally calculated as a percentage of the wagering revenue generated by the business customer using DK’s software and is recognized in the periods in which those wagering and related activities conclude.
  2. Reseller Arrangement Revenue: In this type of transaction, DK provides distributors with the right to resell DK’s software-as-a-service offering to their clients, using their own infrastructure. In reseller arrangements, revenue is generally calculated via a fixed monthly fee and an additional monthly fee which varies based on the number of gaming operators to whom each reseller sub-licenses DK’s software.
As mentioned above, SBTech was an international company based in the Isle of Man before being acquired by DK. Thus, the majority of their business in their first 12 years of operating independently has always been international and outside of the United States. This has helped DK, which has historically been US focused, expand it’s international reach.
A perfect example of expanding this international reach occurred recently during October (technically Q4) in which DK’s B2B technology (powered by SBTech) helped enable the launch of “PalaceBet”, a new mobile and online sportsbook offering from Peermont, a South Africa based resort and casino company. The deal was headed by DK’s new Chief International Officer, Shay Berka, who previously spent 10 years working for SBTech as CFO and General Manager. Mr. Berka took on the role of DK’s Chief International Officer upon the merger in April earlier this year. I think this deal shows that DK has integrated SBTech and it’s business very well into the larger business as a whole. They are not wasting any time using their newly acquired resources to expand their reach and bring in new sources of revenue.
This is the end of my first article about DK. My goal is to drop Part 2 later this week. The focus of Part 2 will be an in depth answer of the question – “Can we 10x from here?”
Disclosure: I am/we are long DKNG. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
submitted by Historical-Comment36 to SecurityAnalysis [link] [comments]

DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) - Deep Dive Research - Part 1

TL:DR
Hello, welcome to my first deep dive write up.
My name’s Mark and I’m an accountant with a passion for investing. About two years ago, I used to work as an auditor at a public accounting firm and have been behind the scenes at many different publicly traded and privately held companies in the U.S. My goal is to bring my unique perspective from that past experience, my current experience working in a new role at a large corporation, and my understanding of accounting to help break down some of the most exciting growth stocks on the market today.
I’m a long-term investor. I am focused on finding great companies and holding them for a long time. I’m willing to endure volatility, crazy price drops, and everything that comes with this approach as long as the facts that led me to originally invest and believe in that company have not changed. If you want to learn more about this approach. I recommend reading the book “100 Baggers” by Chris Mayer.
Introduction
I think it’s fitting that my first stock pick has to do with sports. Sports has been a part of my life since I could walk at the age of 2. First with baseball and soccer, and then later in my childhood with golf. I’ve always played American football and basketball for fun as well and have always been an avid fan of all the major sports in the US.
I started playing fantasy sports (mostly just fantasy football) about 6 years ago and have always enjoyed it. Traditionally, with fantasy football you draft a team at the beginning of the year and those are your players for the rest of the season. If you have a bad draft, oh well. You can try to improve your team with trades and free agent additions but it is tough. Leagues usually consist of 10-14 teams (each managed by an individual) and there’s obviously only one winner at the end of the season (about 4 months after the draft). This can lead to the managers of the lower performing teams losing interest as the season wanes on. I believe DraftKings’ (DK) founders saw this issue and saw an opportunity. Enter, daily fantasy sports. Now, with the DK platform you can draft a new team every week. Or if you want, every day. This allows fans of fantasy sports to engage at whichever point of the season they want and at varying financial stakes.
The Thesis Statement
For every stock pick I make, I want to provide a quick thesis statement that can serve as a reminder for why I’m buying and holding that stock for the long term. I’ll always aim to make it just a few sentences long so it can easily be remembered and internalized. This helps during times when the price may sporadically drop and you need to remember why you’re holding this position.
The thesis statement I have come up with for DK is as follows:
“DraftKings: The leader in allowing fans to engage financially with their favorite sports, teams, and players. Having money at stake makes the game a lot more interesting to watch. The era of daily fantasy sports games, online sports betting, and online betting (outside of sports), is just getting started and DK is as well positioned (or better positioned) than anyone to capitalize off of this trend.”
Notice how I said “allowing fans to engage financially” as the first sentence and not necessarily “allowing fans to gamble”. There’s a reason for that. According to US Federal Law, Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) contests have specifically been exempted from the prohibitions of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA). DK has always been, and I believe will continue to be DFS contests 1st, sports betting 2nd, and other forms of gambling/entertainment 3rd. It is noteworthy that states at an individual level can still deem DFS contests illegal if they so wish, but as of this writing (11/26/20), 43 of the 50 US States allow DFS contests and DK, accordingly, is offering DFS contests in all 43 of those US States.
I’ll try to clarify the difference between DFS contests and sports betting real quick:
DFS Contest – Pay a pre-set entry fee to enter a contest. All entry fees go towards “The Pot”. “Draft” 9 players to be on your “Team” for 1 week. Enter your “Roster” into a contest with other players (could range from 1 other person to 1,000s of people, the DK user can choose). Whichever “Roster” amasses the most points for that week out of all contestants wins. The winner will get the highest payout, and depending on the nature of the contest, other top finishers will receive smaller payouts as well.
Sports Gambling – Team A is considered a 10 point favorite to defeat Team B. This means that Team A is expected, by the professional gambling line setters, to outscore Team B by 10 points. This is known as a point spread. You can bet on the underdog or the favorite. If you bet on the favorite, they have to win by more than 10 points for you to win the bet. If you bet on the underdog, you will win the bet as long as the underdog keeps the game within less than a 10 point defeat.
These are just a couple simple examples to help you see the difference. Sports Gambling (the 2nd priority of DK) is a very lucrative market just as the DFS contests are. However, in the US, Federal Laws and regulations are a lot stricter on Sports Gambling than they are on DFS. As of this writing (11/27/20), 22 states (including the District of Columbia) out of 51 possible allow sports gambling.
DK is still in the infancy stages of getting their sports gambling business going. In the 22 states where they could potentially operate, they currently have a sports gambling offering in 11 of those states. The sports gambling business model for DK can be broken into two main offerings – mobile sports betting, and retail sports betting. Mobile sports betting means you can place a sports bet online from the comfort of your own home, while retail sports betting means you must go to a casino and place a bet with the sportsbook in person. I personally believe mobile sports betting is the real potential cash cow for DK out of the two types of sports betting offerings due to the convenience and ease of access. DK is currently working on and encouraging customers to lobby their state lawmakers to legalize sports gambling in more states.
How DK makes money
At the very least, before you invest in a company, you better understand how they make money. In Chris Mayers’ excellent book, 100 Baggers, that I mentioned above, he continually references top line revenue growth as one of the main common indicators of a possible 100 Bagger. This isn’t to tell you that any stock I pick will be a 100 Bagger just because it has great top line revenue growth, but if I am looking at a growth stock to hold for the long term, revenue growth is one of the first things I look at.
For DK, their means of making money is quite simple. I already went into detail above about DFS Contests and Sports Gambling. In DK’s latest 10-Q filing with the SEC (filed 11/13/20), revenue is broken out into two main streams: Online Gaming and Gaming Software.
Online Gaming (82% of Total Revenue for 9 months ended 9/30/20):
Online gaming is the true core business of DK and includes the aforementioned DFS Contests, Sports Gambling and additional gambling (non-sports) opportunities. DK refers to their additional gambling (non-sports) as “iGaming” or “online casino”.
For the 9 months ended 9/30/20, Online Gaming revenue totaled $239M, up 30% YoY from $184M in the same prior year period. Keep in mind, that this is an increase that happened during a COVID-19 global pandemic that delayed and shortened many professional sports seasons.
Online gaming revenue is earned in a few ways that are slightly different, but very similar overall. In order to enter a DFS contest, a customer must pay an entry fee. DFS revenue is generated from these entry fees collected, net of prize payouts and customer incentives awarded to users. In order to place a sports bet (sports gambling), a customer places a wager with a DK Sportsbook. The DK Sportsbook sets odds for each wager that builds in a theoretical margin allowing DK to profit. Sports gambling revenue is generated from wagers collected from customers, net of payouts and incentives awarded to winning customers. The last form of online gaming revenue is earned in similar fashion to a land-based casino, offering online versions of casino games such as blackjack, roulette, and slot machines.
Gaming Software (18% of Total Revenue for 9 months ended 9/30/20):
While the Online Gaming revenue stream mentioned above is a Business to Consumer (B2C) model, the Gaming Software revenue stream is a Business to Business (B2B) model. The Gaming Software side of the business was born out of the acquisition of SBTech, a company from the Isle of Man (near the UK) founded in 2007 that has 12+ years of experience providing online sports betting platforms to clients all over the world. The acquisition occurred as part of the SPAC driven IPO in April of 2020 that combined “the old DK company” with SBTech so that they now are “the new DK company” listed as DKNG on the NASDAQ. SBTech is a far more important part of the story than just being 18% of today’s revenue. The reason for this is because DK will eventually (planned mid-late 2021) be migrating all of their DFS and gambling offerings onto SBTech’s online platforms. Currently, for DFS, DK uses their own proprietary platform but that will move to SBTech with the migration. Currently, for online gambling, DK uses Kambi, the same online gambling platform that services Penn Gaming (PENN), a DK rival. But that’s enough about the software migration for now, back to the Gaming Software revenue.
The Gaming Software revenue stream for DK is essentially a continuation of SBTechs’ B2B business model. DK contracts with business customers to provide sports and casino betting software solutions. DK typically enters two different type of arrangements with B2B customers when selling the gaming software:

  1. Direct Customer Contract Revenue: In this type of transaction, the software is sold directly to a business (casino for example) that wants to use the software for their own gambling operations. This revenue is generally calculated as a percentage of the wagering revenue generated by the business customer using DK’s software and is recognized in the periods in which those wagering and related activities conclude.
  2. Reseller Arrangement Revenue: In this type of transaction, DK provides distributors with the right to resell DK’s software-as-a-service offering to their clients, using their own infrastructure. In reseller arrangements, revenue is generally calculated via a fixed monthly fee and an additional monthly fee which varies based on the number of gaming operators to whom each reseller sub-licenses DK’s software.
As mentioned above, SBTech was an international company based in the Isle of Man before being acquired by DK. Thus, the majority of their business in their first 12 years of operating independently has always been international and outside of the United States. This has helped DK, which has historically been US focused, expand it’s international reach.
A perfect example of expanding this international reach occurred recently during October (technically Q4) in which DK’s B2B technology (powered by SBTech) helped enable the launch of “PalaceBet”, a new mobile and online sportsbook offering from Peermont, a South Africa based resort and casino company. The deal was headed by DK’s new Chief International Officer, Shay Berka, who previously spent 10 years working for SBTech as CFO and General Manager. Mr. Berka took on the role of DK’s Chief International Officer upon the merger in April earlier this year. I think this deal shows that DK has integrated SBTech and it’s business very well into the larger business as a whole. They are not wasting any time using their newly acquired resources to expand their reach and bring in new sources of revenue.
This is the end of my first article about DK. My goal is to drop Part 2 later this week. The focus of Part 2 will be an in depth answer of the question – “Can we 10x from here?”
Disclosure: I am/we are long DKNG. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
submitted by Historical-Comment36 to investing [link] [comments]

A Brief Guide on Risk and Equity Investing

Hello all, I am a graduate student in finance with a bachelor's degree in Accounting. I wrote my thesis on how macroeconomic policy affects US equity markets (equity markets = stock market). I've spent the last 3 years studying this stuff and I'd say that I am not qualified in any sense to give sound investment advice. What that should tell you is that the stock market is an extremely complex landscape and takes years to understand. Even the best of the best lose money. With that being said, this comment is for informational purposes and not to be taken as investment advice or direction.

I originally wrote this post as a comment to another user, but thought that it may be beneficial for others to use. It's very surface level, but I think it does a good job of answering some more abstract questions that people may have about equity markets. I also think it does a good job of establishing a solid, albeit basic idea of value investing and financial analysis.
---
Understand that the last ten years does not accurately represent equity markets historically. From 1925 to 1941, if you invested in the S&P 500 index, you would have seen an average annual return of less than 5% with several of those years being negative- over the next ten years. Same goes for 1960 to 1975. (Disclaimer: Before people tear me apart saying you can't invest in the S&P 500 directly, I know. I'm using it as an example.)

We've experienced a remarkably strong bull market over the last ten years, with 20% annual returns on the S&P 500 index; however, just because we've had a strong market the last ten years does not mean it will stay that way. Consider Japan in the early 1990s. Their bull market turned into a bubble (google: financial bubble) and for the next 10 years they saw no long term growth in their equity markets. They call the 1990s in Japan, "the lost decade". So this begs the question: if there are 10, sometimes 15 year long periods where we have almost no growth, or perhaps negative returns, when, where, and why should I park my money in equities?

The first thing I think we should understand is risk. Risk is at the heart of almost all things "investing". If you go to the casino, and place $5,000 straight at the roulette table, your payout is a massive 35:1. If your bet hits, you walk away with $180,000. But statistically, your chances of winning are less than 3%. The risk is massive. Alternatively, if you buy a 3-month US treasury bill, the payout is around .1%. Meaning you would made $5 on a $5,000 investment. Why? The risk is so low. Also, what is a 3-month US treasury bill? Let me explain.

A US Treasury bill is a short-term government debt security. Here's how it works. You give the US government $5,000. They now owe you $5,000 PLUS interest at a future date. In this example, it's 3 months. The US government says, "Thank you! We will give you $5,005 back in three months!" In three months, they give you the money back. Ask yourself, if you had to guess the percentage likelihood of the US government collapsing in the next three months, what would it be? Pretty low, right? That's why the return is so low. The United States government has the power, means, right, and infrastructure to tax the wealthiest population on the planet. Also, they aren't going out of business anytime soon. Therefore, that $5 return on a $5,000 investment is essentially guaranteed. Check out this chart.

All stocks sit somewhere on this line of risk and return. But, how do we know the risk and return? Great question. How do we assess the value of an asset? An asset's worth is the sum of its future cash flows discounted to today's dollars. Read that again. An asset's worth is the sum of its future cash flows discounted to today's dollars. This is what we call "Net Present Value". Here's a video over it. Here's the NPV formula.

Let's say we have a machine that spits out one dollar every year for 5 years. What is the value of that machine assuming a 2% inflation rate every year? Let's find out! Remember our NPV formula? Let's do the math. [$1 / (1+ .02)1] + [$1 / (1+ .02)2]+ ... + [$1 / (1+ .02)5] = $4.71. In this example, inflation rate is the discount rate; however, the discount rate can be many other things. We won't go into that right now though.

So what does this mean to you? It gives you perspective. All those price movements in the stock market are the product of huge investment banks, mutual funds, and hedge funds moving money in and out of equities in massive quantities, with those decisions backed by hundreds, if not thousands of hours of research with private data that you can't access even if you had the money too.

One of the big ways they (big banks) make these decisions is by using the NPV formula with Net Income in the numerator to determine the value of the asset and a rate to discount the cash flows at (there are ways to do this, again, we won't go into it). Then they use more complex methods to assess risk. Other methods of valuation may be used, but again, this is one of the big ones.

So far, we've learned that risk and reward are positively correlated and companies are valued by their earnings. But, if companies are valued by their earnings, then why do bubbles happen? Why does the market tank sometimes? Shouldn't the market accurately reflect all companies at any given time? In theory, yes. But humans are irrational creatures, and often wrong. Therefore, stock prices are not always appropriately valued.

I am going to introduce you to two financial ratios: earnings per share (EPS) and price to earnings (P/E) ratio. NOTE: EARNINGS = NET INCOME.

Earnings per share is the net income of a company divided by it's number of outstanding shares. EPS = Net Income / Shares Outstanding. So let's say my company has a net income of $100 for the 2020 year and there are 100 shares outstanding. That would mean that my company's EPS is $1. Let's look at a real example: Apple. Click on this link. In the top left hand corner, click on sections>financial statements>consolidated statements of operations. Find EPS. Apple's EPS is 3.31. That's pretty solid. EPS puts a companies earnings in perspective with respect to the number of shareholders it has, which allows you to compare a companies earnings to its competitors, whether they be smaller or larger.

Next, the price to earnings ratio. This is easy to calculate. It is just the share price divided by the EPS. PE = Price / EPS. What this does is puts the price of the stock in perspective with respect to its earnings. Consider the example where my company had an EPS of $1. Let's say the price of my stock is $30 per share. That would mean my PE ratio is 30 (PE raio of 30 = $30/$1 EPS). For some perspective on the PE ratio- the average P/E ratio in the S&P 500 is 25-30. But they can be as high as 1,000 (like Tesla) or as low 4 or 5. What the PE ratio does is says, "Hey man, here's a metric to determine how justifiable the price of this stock is considering how much the company makes." Generally speaking, investing in companies that have low PE ratios tend to show higher returns. Why? Because there is more of an acceptable margin (historically) for the price to increase with respect to earnings.

For example: Five years ago, Apple's PE ratio was around 10. Now it's 40. This means the price went up, the earnings went down, or both. Over the last 5 years, Apple's EPS has increased. Therefore, because it's PE ratio is increasing as well, this means that it's price of the stock is increasing faster than it's earnings. Reference this chart. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, it just means that the big boys like Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, etc. think that Apple is going to do really well over the coming years as of right now. But let's say that tomorrow Apple was outed as a front for a money laundering scheme and they were going to be audited by the SEC and FBI. The price would tank. Why? Because people would be questioning if Apple would even exist as a company in the following years. They (the big boys, the government, me and you) would doubt their earnings. Rightfully so, I should add.

What I (and many others) do is look at companies and determine:

  1. Are their earnings sound? (Is it positive? If not, will it be positive? Will the company grow? Will another company come in and do whatever this company is doing, better?) This will help you determine if the return will be solid.
  2. What is the current price of the equity in relation to the earnings? (What's the PE? Is it going up? Is it going down? Why?) This will help you determine how risky is your investment.

A solid company is generally one that has a high EPS, a low PE ratio, and is expected to grow. The reason Tesla has a PE ratio of >1,000 is because people expect it to grow. Like, they expect it to be the largest electric vehicle company by net income in the next 10-20 years AND expand into other markets like solar energy and batteries. Will they be right? I guess we'll see!

This is the tip of the ice berg when it comes to investing. If you truly want to learn how to capture returns without exposing your investment to a large amount of risk, you are going to have to spend time learning how to do this. Here are some resources:


In my opinion, experience is a great teacher. Play with a small amount of money. Throw $100 at a stock you like and see what happens to it. If it drops 10% in a day, figure out why. If it goes up 10% in a day, figure out why. If it goes up steadily over the next six months, figure out why. If it doesn't do anything- figure out why.

I'd like to note again that these opinions do not constitute investment advice. They are my personal opinions and do not guarantee any sort of returns. This is how I personally approach the stock market. Investing in any asset carries risk and all investors should conduct their own due diligence and analysis before investing.

"Be fearful when others are greedy; be greedy when others are fearful."

-Warren Buffett

Cheers
submitted by LithiumTomato to investing [link] [comments]

How HUT mirrors a casino and drives gambling addiction

I repost this every year to try to help those spending more than they would like on HUT and to educate newer players on this issue before it becomes a problem. A lot of people do the majority of their spending in the first month or two so it's good to talk about now pretty soon before the next iteration releases.
You can be a whale of a spender, free to play, or anything in between and that's fine as long as you're okay with it and it's not negatively affecting your life. Some people would rather rip packs to improve a team they'll use all year instead of blowing $30 on a night out at a bar or movie or whatever. The other side to that is that I've personally seen people spend over $10,000 in a single year on coin sales and over $800 on a single card. I've seem people sell cards for rent money. The important thing is to honestly assess where you're at, what you want, what this pack will actually get you, and what you're buying.
Facts:
Here's what you can do to frame it correctly in your brain
  • Remove your stored credit card from your account. This will force you to type in the numbers if you decide you want a pack. This extra time gives your brain a minute to ponder the decision.
  • Better yet you can buy a PSN card BEFORE you start, which has the value you want to spend.
  • Best is probably buying coins, then buying packs with those. More bang for your buck and a clear stopping point.
  • Keep track of how much you spend as you go through the year. Make yourself write your new purchase on this sheet before you buy, and make yourself view the yearly total. $5 and here and $5 there add up over time but are individually easy to not notice.
  • All this content will be GONE in a year or less. On average, even if you sell coins, you're likely to get maybe 5-10% back depending on when you sell.
  • If you're having a hard time not getting excited about packs and browse from a full browser, hide pack pull flaired posts.
  • If you have a gambling problem, get help. 1-800-522-4700 is the number for the national gambling hotline in the US. Here are some Canadian resources. I've heard of people not making rent but buying packs, and I've heard people blow over $2,000 on packs. This shit can get real, fast.
I think it's important that people understand the realities before buying packs. It's like a raffle/lottery, sure you could win a fancy McDavid (or a smaller prize), but you're way more likely to get something that won't even help your team let alone fit on your team.
If you're determined to get that new player you get a much better return buying coins from a triple checked regular seller (/hutcoinsales). You have to be sure who you're talking to, and that they've been reliable for a very long time, but at least you're paying for more than unrealized hope. I'd say on average in my experience you get at least 3x the value buying coins than you receive on average buying packs. Coins are hard to buy at the beginning of the year though FYI.
Here's a good video about microtransactions and their history, if you feel like being angry today
Upvote it or don't, karma is not the point. Sticky it and downvote the shit out of it. Hope all is well with all of you! If something is outdated let me know, I haven't bought the game this year or for the past few years.
submitted by anonmarmot to NHLHUT [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
  • Why it matters
  • Position sizing
  • Kelly
  • Using stops sensibly
  • Picking a clear level

Why it matters

The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing

The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".

https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:

https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.

Kelly Criterion

If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
  • How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
  • What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.

How to use stop losses sensibly

Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.

Picking a clear level

Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.

If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.

https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.

https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
  1. Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
  2. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
  3. Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.

Coming up in part II

EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns

Coming up in part III

Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

The truth about the dbrand Grip...

The truth about the dbrand Grip...
Grips. Let's talk about 'em.
If you've spent any amount of time on this subreddit, you've likely seen at least one post about a Grip case that has fallen apart. Most of you have seen several. We know this because we've seen every single one. We’d like to see less of them. Ideally, none.
Over the past 18 months, we’ve been on an odyssey to fix the underlying problem. What follows is a chronicle of that journey.
Our objectives in writing this post are three-fold. There will be a tl;dr version at the end of this post, summarizing each of the three:
  1. Offer an in-depth technical explanation as to why Grip cases fall apart.
  2. Outline the improvements we've made to the Grip case to mitigate and eventually solve the issue.
  3. Provide some much-needed context as to how widespread the issue truly is, and what our next steps are for affected Grip SKUs.
Since you're still here, you must be in it for the long haul. Assuming an average reading speed of 250 words per minute, this is going to take you nearly 24 minutes to get through. We'll try to make it the most informative 24 minutes of your life. Let's get started.

PART ONE

Why Do Grips Fall Apart?
Most phone cases are made out of a single material. The material itself varies from case to case, though the most common is Thermoplastic Polyurethane (TPU). The Grip case, as a point of comparison, is made of two different materials: an elastomer and a polycarbonate.
The word elastomer is a combination of the words elastic and polymer. That's because it describes polymers that have elastic properties - like the one that forms the outer rim of your Grip case. The elastomer that we use is responsible for two critical properties of the Grip case: impact protection and grip.
If you fell off of a rooftop, would you rather land on a hard plastic surface, or a rubber surface? If you value your life at all, you'd choose the rubber - its elastic properties would absorb much more force from the impact. Guess what rubber is? First one to answer "an elastomer" wins a prize!
Next, imagine you’re a pervert, gently running your finger across every surface of a No. 2 Pencil. Which part of the pencil do you think would provide the most resistance to the tracing of your finger? If you guessed "the eraser," congratulations: you possess a basic understanding of coefficients of friction. Erasers are made of rubber. Rubber has a high coefficient of friction because of its elastic properties.
The Grip case's elastomer isn't rubber - it's our own specially-formulated compound. It's still a useful comparison, as all elastomers share similar properties - provided they have the same degree of Shore Hardness.
One person reading this is asking: “Shore Hardness?” The next section is their fault.

A Beginner's Guide to Material Science
The Shore Hardness scale gauges the hardness of various elastomers. It can be measured with a device called a durometer. You probably don't have one.
  • Low Shore Hardness = softer, more malleable, less dense, more rubber-like.
  • High Shore Hardness = harder, less malleable, more dense, more plastic-like.
If you fell out of a building and landed on a rubber surface with a high Shore Hardness, injury or death would be much more likely.
If you used an eraser with a high Shore Hardness, you'd find it wouldn't actually do much erasing.
Now, what if you made a phone case out of an elastomer with a high Shore Hardness? It wouldn't offer much grip or impact protection.
The Grip's outer rim is made from an elastomer with a low Shore Hardness. As a result, the material is grippy and impact-resistant, but much more malleable and thus more likely to deform. That's why we bond the elastomer to a polycarbonate skeleton.
Polycarbonates don't require as much explanation as elastomers: they're a category of plastic. On your Grip case, the back plate is made of polycarbonate. The elastomer rim is bonded to the polycarbonate plate on all sides of the Grip, providing structural rigidity to the elastomer, fighting to keep it from deforming. At least, that's the idea. As we've all seen, it hasn't worked out that way.
Bonding two distinct materials together is much more complicated than gluing them together. Instead, we rely on a thermal bonding process. Basically, that means we heat both of our polymers to a degree which would turn you from “rare” to “well done” in moments. This heat melts the polymers, which we then inject at a pressure which would turn you from “solid” to “paste” even faster.
Once injected, these two materials get fused together along the seams. To further reinforce the bonds, we use a series of interlocking "teeth" to provide a greater surface area on which the bonding process can occur. Consider these teeth the mechanical bond, which exists to strengthen the thermal bond.

Pictured: Bonding mechanic between the elastomer and polycarbonate.
With that out of the way: why do Grips fall apart?
The elastomer rim around the edge of the Grip case is naturally inclined to deform and stretch. The bonding mechanisms we described above are designed to keep that from happening, but it often isn’t strong enough. As soon as the bond fails at any point, it's only a matter of time until a total structural failure occurs.

PART TWO

How Are We Stopping Grips From Falling Apart?
Philosophically, there are two approaches to take:
  1. We can investigate why, exactly, the bond between the elastomer and the polycarbonate is failing.
  2. We can tweak and iterate the thermal and mechanical bond - strengthening it to the point where it's statistically improbable that your case will fall apart.
We tried the first approach - it's the road to madness. The number of variables is irrationally large. What's the temperature like where you live? The altitude? The humidity? Do you bring your phone into environments that deviate from the ambient temperature of your location? Does your school or workplace have extremely dry air? Do you bring your phone into a sauna? What sort of soap do you wash your hands with? Do you have oily hands? What sort of food do you cook? Do you smoke? How hard do you press on the buttons? What's your angle of approach when you actuate a button? How big are your hands? How often do you take your phone out of the case? Do you remove it from the top, the bottom, the sides?
We could follow all of these roads, find out exactly which factors are causing the bond to fail, then implement preventative measures to keep it from happening - but that would take a decade. We don't have that long. Much like you, we want this fixed yesterday.
So, from the moment we received our first complaint about a Grip deforming around the buttons, we've been making structural, thermal, and mechanical improvements to the design and production process of the Grip case - some visible, some not. Every new phone release has brought a new iteration on the core Grip design, with each one reducing the failure rate, incrementally. We'll bring the receipts in the next chapter. For now, let's highlight the most noteworthy improvements.

The Most Noteworthy Improvements
The first signs of trouble were the buttons. Months before we'd received our first report of a Grip case de-bonding, we saw the first examples of buttons that had bent out of shape.

Pictured: Button deformation.
Why the buttons? Because you press down on them. The force from button actuation puts strain on the elastomer, causing displacement of the material in the surrounding area. Through a combination of time, repeated button actuations and the above-mentioned force, the case would permanently deform around the buttons. This concept is called the "compression set" of the elastomer - Google it.
The solution to this problem was two-fold:
  1. First, we increased the compression set of the elastomer. Essentially, we made it as dense as we could, without compromising on the elastic properties of the material.
  2. Second, we added relief slits surrounding the buttons - they're plainly visible on any newer Grip case model. These relief slits are an escape route for the force generated by button actuation. They also had the positive effect of making button actuation significantly more satisfying (read: clicky).

Pictured: Relief slits to improve button tactility and durability.
Another early issue, pre-dating the first reports of total de-bonding, was a deformation of the elastomer along the bottom of the case - where the charging port and speakers are.
Since we've covered the basics on how the interlock between the elastomer and the polycarbonate creates a bond, this is how the interlocking teeth along the top edge of the polycarbonate skeleton of the Grip used to look.

Pictured: First-gen interlocking teeth on the top of the Grip.
...and here's the bottom of that very same Grip case.

Pictured: First-gen interlocking teeth on the bottom of the Grip.
Notice anything? Around the charging port, there is absolutely nothing keeping the elastomer in place. No teeth, no structural reinforcements... it's no coincidence that an overwhelming majority of early Grip deformations happened along the bottom.
Since then, we’ve added a reinforced polycarbonate structure around the bottom of the Grip case. You'll see what that looks like in a bit.
So, why didn't the launch portfolio of Grip cases have mechanical interlocks or a polycarbonate support structure along the bottom?
The answer may or may not be complicated, depending on how much you know about plastic injection molding. We'll assume the worst and explain the concept of "undercut" to you with a ridiculous metaphor.

The Ridiculous Metaphor
Imagine you had a tube full of melted cheese. Next, imagine you emptied that entire tube into your mouth. Rather than swallowing the cheese, you decide to let it sit in your mouth and harden. Why are you doing this? We don't know. Let's just say you want a brick of cheese that's perfectly molded to the contours of your mouth - a very normal thing to want.
So, your mouth is completely filled with cheese. It hardens. You reach into your mouth to remove the brick of cheese. As you're removing it, you encounter a problem: your teeth are in the way. This wasn't a problem when you were putting the cheese into your mouth, but that was because the cheese was melted and could flow around your teeth. Now that the cheese has hardened, this is no longer the case.
In the world of plastic injection molding, this is an undercut. Our concern was that, by molding a structurally rigid piece of polycarbonate around the charging port and speaker holes, we'd find ourselves unable to remove the Grip Case from the mold once hardened. Imagine spending $30,000 on industrial tooling only to get a $30 phone case stuck inside of it.
Once we saw Grip cases deforming along the bottom cutouts, we knew we'd need to find a way to remove the cheese from your mouth without breaking your teeth. To make a long story short: we did it. The cheese is out of your mouth, and you get to keep your teeth. Congratulations! Now, keep reading.
On newer models of the Grip case, the result is a polycarbonate bridge extending around the bottom cutouts, adding both structural reinforcement and interlock mechanisms to promote mechanical bond, much like the ones which line the perimeter of the rest of the Grip case.

Pictured: Newest-gen structural reinforcement on the bottom of the Grip.
On the subject of structural reinforcements, this design revision was around the time we flanked the buttons with some fins, working in tandem with the heightened compression set and button relief slits, detailed above, to further guarantee that button actuation would have no impact on the overall durability of the Grip case.

Pictured: Lack of button fins on the first-gen Grip.

Pictured: Button fins on the newest-gen Grip.
As an aside: Unrelated to the de-bonding issues, we've also made a number of smaller improvements to the Grip case with each new iteration. For instance, we chamfered the front lip of the case to make edge-swiping more pleasant and reduce dust accumulation along the rim. Those raised parallelogram shapes along the sides of your Grip case that create its distinctive handfeel? We made those way bigger for a better in-hand experience. In short: product development is a complex and multifaceted process. Each new iteration of the Grip case is better than the one that came before, and that applies to more than just failure rates.
Speaking of failure rates: all of these improvements were in place by the time we launched iPhone 11-series Grip cases. The failure rate for these cases decreased exponentially... but didn't disappear entirely.

The Even More Ridiculous Metaphor
With these improvements, we achieved our desired outcome: the case was no longer deforming around the buttons or the charging port. Instead, the structure of the case began to fail literally anywhere else around the perimeter of the phone.
Think of it this way… you’re a roof carpenter. The greatest roof carpenter of all time. Like the son of God, but if he was a carpenter. Unfortunately, you’ve been paired with the Donald Trump of wall-builders.
You're tasked with building a house. You spend all of your time and energy perfecting your roofcraft. You've designed a roof that's so durable, it may as well have been made of Nokia 3310s. Nothing's getting through that bad boy.
The wall guy? Instead of building that wall he said Mexico would pay for, he's been tweeting about the miraculous medicinal properties of bleach while a plague kills hundreds of thousands of Americans.
The point here is that you can build the greatest roof of all time, but the walls need to be strong enough to match.
To strengthen the Grip case's metaphorical walls, we needed to re-design the inside of the Grip case from scratch. More specifically, the mechanical interlock between the springy elastomer and rigid polycarbonate skeleton. We took every tooth at the bonding point between the two materials and made them as large as we possibly could. Then, we added more teeth.

Pictured: Polycarbonate teeth on the newest-gen Grip.
To jog your memory: this is how the teeth used to look...

Pictured: Polycarbonate teeth on the first-gen Grip.
If time proves that these changes aren’t enough, our engineers still have a number of ideas on how to improve the bond between the elastomer and polycarbonate. Will we ever need to implement those ideas? Again - that’s a question only time can answer. Each change might be the silver bullet that puts this problem to bed for good... but there's only one way to find out: it involves real-world testing and, with each iteration, months of careful observation.

PART THREE

So, Where Are We Now?
Have the improvements we've made to the Grip case been successful? You bet.
For the sake of comparison: we began shipping iPhone 11 series Grips on September 30th, 2019. Within six months of that date, we had received 52 reports of structural failures - a big improvement over the early days, but still not good enough.
Fast forward two months. We began shipping Note 10 Plus Grip cases on November 21st, 2019. In the first six months of availability, we received exactly eight reports of Note 10 Plus Grips falling apart. Again, a major improvement over the iPhone series in the same stretch of time. If we'd launched the first Grip cases with a failure rate that low, we wouldn't be writing this post right now and you’d have nothing to read while pretending to do work.
How about the Galaxy S20 series, which began shipping on February 10th, 2020? They're the most recent and improved set of SKUs we’ve made to date, leveraging everything we've learned and making further improvements over the Note 10 Plus. No reports so far. Same goes for the iPhone SE and OnePlus 8 series - these SKUs share all the improvements we've made to the underlying design of the Grip case thus far.
Does that mean these numbers will hold forever? Who knows. That's the thing: every improvement we make, we need to wait several months to see how effective it's been. No amount of internal testing can replace the real-world data of shipping cases to hundreds of thousands of users across nearly 200 countries.
We could always just throw in the towel, make the entire case out of rigid plastic, and call it a solved issue... but that would be the easy way out. The Grip case and its unique design properties can't reach their full potential unless we make incremental improvements - then wait and see how they pan out in the real world.
All of which is to say: it's far too early to say the newest set of improvements have officially solved the problem. While the failure rate is still zero, we need to keep watching. We've made a ton of progress, but we're not going to rest until we've killed this issue for good - without sacrificing the unique properties that make the Grip case stand out in a sea of derivative hard plastic and TPU phone cases.
That's probably enough to inspire confidence in someone who's on the fence about buying an S20 Ultra Grip, an iPhone SE Grip, or any Grip we release in the future. But what if you're one of the people who bought an older Grip model?

"I'm One Of The People Who Bought An Older Grip Model!"
We won't sugarcoat it. The failure rates for older Grip models is way higher than we deem acceptable. Why has it taken us this long to publicly address the issue, then?
Easy: it's not as widespread as you might think. Some humans reading this might be looking at their iPhone X Grip, purchased in 2019 and still intact, wondering what all the fuss is about. That's an important consideration: most people who have functioning, still-bonded Grip cases aren't posting on /dbrand about how unbroken it is. The people who've had issues around total product failure are in the minority.
We're not using the word "minority" as a get-out-of-jail-free card here. It's still a way larger number than we'd ever be comfortable with. We simply don't want our transparency and candor in writing this to be misinterpreted as an admission that every single Grip case we've made for older devices is going to fall apart. Statistically speaking, this is an issue for a minority of Grip owners.
Our philosophy at first was that, while it was unfortunate and frustrating that Grip cases were falling apart, dramatic PR action wasn't necessary. Instead, we resolved to:
  1. Quietly and diligently work in the background to improve the underlying design of the Grip case.
  2. Ship free replacements to anyone whose Grip case had failed.
To date, we've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on shipping fees alone for replacement Grips. As you can imagine, that number gets a lot higher once you add in the cost of actually making the thing. We've been fine with writing these costs off as sort of an R&D expense, since every example of a deformed or de-bonded Grip provides invaluable data on how to improve the product.
Where our strategy backfired was in the narrative that began to take root as Grip cases continued to fall apart. Look at it this way: the failure rate of older Grip case SKUs is anywhere between 1% and 20%, depending on how early we released the SKU. Since the improvements we've already made to the underlying design were rolled out incrementally with each new phone release, that number has been on a steady downward trend.
For the purpose of this thought experiment, we'll go with the earliest, shittiest Grip cases - putting us at a long-term failure rate of 20%.
So, 20% of customers for this device have a Grip case fall apart at some point in the product's lifespan. Every single one of those people writes in to our Customer Experience team about the issue. They all receive a replacement, free of charge.
Since this replacement is identical to the first Grip case they'd received, it also has a 20% failure rate. We're now dealing with percentages of percentages. Stop panicking, we'll do the math for you: that means 4% of these hypothetical Grip owners will have a second Grip case fail on them in the long run.
Four percent is a lot better than twenty… but it's also a lot of people who've been burned twice. These people are going to be extra vocal about how shitty the Grip case is. To be fair, they've got every right.
So, we've got four groups of customers for this SKU:
  • Group A: Has had two or more Grip cases fail (4%).
  • Group B: Has had exactly one Grip case fail (16%).
  • Group C: Bought a Grip which has not failed (80%).
  • Group D: Has not purchased a Grip case (NA%).
Group A is livid about the repeated issues they've had - rightfully so.
Group B, having been burned before, reads about Group A's experience. They take it to mean their replacement will inevitably fail on them as well, and they'll one day get the dubious honor of joining Group A.
Group C, despite not having had any issues yet, reads the experiences of Groups A and B. Then, a significant portion of this group begins to operate under the assumption that it's only a matter of time before their Grip falls apart as well.
Group D reads all of the above and decides they don't have enough confidence in the Grip case to ever purchase one.
A narrative begins to form that this hypothetical failure rate is close to 100%. Worse yet: people with newer phones, unaware that each new iteration of the Grip case has a dramatically reduced failure rate over the last, start to assume their case also has a 100% failure rate. That's where our original strategy - the one where we quietly improved the product in the background while offering replacements for defective units - backfired on us.
This narrative only exists because we've continued to leverage existing stock with too high a failure rate, which, in hindsight, was like pouring gasoline on a gender reveal forest fire of disappointment and regret. This brings us to our next chapter.

Mass Destruction
At this point, you're probably aware that a number of Grip SKUs for older phones have been listed as "Sold Out" on our website, and haven't been restocked since.
We stopped production on these cases because we knew they'd have all the same issues as the original production runs. See, it's not as simple as pushing a "make the Grip not fall apart" button at the factory - we'd need to redesign the case from scratch, implementing all of the design improvements we've made up to this point, then re-tool our existing machinery to produce this new version. We'll have more to say about re-tooling a bit later - for now, focus on the fact that some Grips have been listed as "Sold Out".
If someone's Grip case falls apart while listed as "Sold Out", we don't have any replacements to send them. Instead, dbrand's Customer Experience team has been issuing refunds wherever possible, and store credit otherwise. Just in case you're wondering what we mean by "where possible": PayPal doesn't allow refunds on transactions that are more than six months old. Store credit, on the other hand, can be offered indefinitely.
What we've come to realize is that we're never going to be able to escape this downward spiral until we rip the band-aid off and stop stocking these old, flawed SKUs.
Today, we're ripping the bandaid off. As you're reading this, we're disposing of all of our old stock. All of the flawed Grip SKUs are now listed as "Sold Out".
Head over to our Grip listing and take a look at what's available. Everything that you can currently buy is up to spec with the improvements we've made over the past year - meeting or exceeding the standard of quality set by the Galaxy S20 series, the iPhone SE, and the OnePlus 8 series. In some cases - take, for instance, the iPhone 11 series - this means we've already re-tooled our production lines to meet that quality benchmark.
If a Grip case is listed on "Backorder", it means we've begun the process of re-tooling the SKU to match the improved quality standard you've spent the last five hours reading about.
However, if a Grip case is now listed as "Sold Out", that means no more reshipments.
If you own a sold out Grip case that hasn't fallen apart yet: that's great! Don't assume that your Grip is doomed to fail just because we devoted 5661 words to explaining why it might fall apart. You've still got better odds than you would at a casino.
As always, if you run into any issues with your case, sold out or not, shoot an email to one of our Robots. They'll still take care of you - it just won't be with a replacement case… for now.

Mass Production
Remember when we said we'd talk more about re-tooling a bit later? That's right now.
So, why are so many Grip models not being fixed? Why haven't we re-tooled these old SKUs with all of the quality improvements made to the case's build quality? It's a little complicated.
Taking the improvements we've made to the most recent suite of Grip models and retroactively applying those changes to older SKUs isn't a simple task - it would require us to throw out our existing production tools and create new ones, from scratch. Suffice it to say that doing so is a wildly expensive endeavor.
To recoup that cost, we'd need to produce more Grips than we're likely to ever sell for aging, irrelevant hardware. Let's use the Pixel 3 as an example.
If we replaced every single de-bonded Pixel 3 Grip, that would account for about 3% of the MOQ (Minimum Order Quantity) on a re-tooled Pixel 3 Grip case. Now we're sitting on 97% of that MOQ as overstock. Pixel 3 owners have had their phone for nearly two years now. If they want a phone case, they already have one. They're not looking for new Pixel 3 cases, they're getting ready to buy a new phone. Simply put, it’s no longer a viable market.
Now, say the Pixel 3 was a significantly more popular phone - enough that we'd be shipping out, say, 50% of the MOQ as replacements on day one. Now, that's a lot more tempting to us - we'd still lose boatloads of money, but at least it would go towards some consumer goodwill.
To figure out how much money we'd lose on re-tooling, we gave our bean-counting Robots a giant jar of beans and told them to get to work. They emerged three days later. When asked how many beans were in the jar, they gave us a blank stare. When asked if it was possible to re-tool any of our production lines for old Grip SKUs without losing obscene amounts of money, they said:
"Absolutely not."
Still, we're no strangers to throwing away obscene amounts of money to make the internet happy. Remember Amazon gift cards? Those were the days. The only question that remains is "How much money are we willing to set on fire?"
We can't tell you yet. Why? Because we're currently running a detailed cost-benefit analysis on the subject of re-tooling old production lines, on a SKU-by-SKU basis. That's business talk for "the bean-counting Robots have been given more beans to count."
The objective is to determine the viability of producing new-and-improved Grip stock for older phones: how many units would be tied up in replacements for that model, how many we could reasonably expect to sell to new customers, and how much overstock would be left from the MOQ.
From there, we can determine what the financial impact of re-tooling would be and make the final decision on how much cash we're dumping into the ocean somewhere off the coast of the Seychelles. We'll have our results by early next week.
These re-tooled models, if produced, would feature every improvement we’ve made thus far to the Grip case line, plus a few that have yet to be released. Remember how the S20s, the iPhone SE and the OnePlus 8s haven't had any reported failures yet? Picture that, but for the phone you've got.
If we go ahead with re-tooling production lines for your phone, a few things will happen:
  1. The Grip case for your phone will go from "Sold Out" to "Backorder".
  2. Our Customer Experience Robots will shift their communication strategy from "we no longer support your phone," to "we'll get you a replacement once we've got improved units in stock."
None of these things will happen until we've run the simulations on which phones are getting restocked. Why are we posting this today, then? We could have waited a week and had concrete answers to offer about the future of our out-of-stock Grip cases. Well…

Take Our Survey
This is it: your chance to have some say in how much money we set on fire as a goodwill exercise for this whole R&D clusterfuck.
Those simulations we're running? They'll be great for telling us how much money we're going to lose on each Grip SKU, but it won't tell us anything about how much money our customers want us to lose on each Grip SKU.
To that end, we've prepared a survey for people who have purchased a Grip case. We'll be taking your feedback into consideration during our decision-making process.
We have only one request: don't be a jackass. Answer the questions honestly.
Click here to take the survey.

In Closing...
We're sharing a special moment right now. We're all seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.
For us, that light is "we're almost done with a year-long R&D effort to stop the Grip case from falling apart."
For you, the light is "the end of a 5661-word marathon of a Reddit post."
We just want to take a minute to recognize that we couldn't have gotten this far without your collective support. At any point in the past year, we might have pulled the plug on the Grip project entirely if we'd reached a critical mass of negative sentiment from our customers. Instead, we've got an army of devotees who have no problem paying us for the privilege of being our guinea pigs.
Product development isn't a one-and-done process. It's easy to forget, but our skins weren't always to the world-class, record-setting, Michael-Jordan-in-his-prime standard you expect from us today. If you happen to have an iPhone 4 skin lying around, apply it and let us know how it goes. You'll immediately appreciate how many process improvements we've made. We weren’t born as the greatest skin manufacturer in history. We got there through a process of methodical improvement. Each jump in quality was driven by a bottomless well of user feedback, sourced from millions upon millions of customers. That, and the competition was comically inept.
It's the same story for the Grip case. Your continued support has enabled us to make huge strides in developing a product that's on the cusp of blowing everyone else out of the water. We're going to keep working until it gets there.

TL;DR VERSION

Please note that by reading this tl;dr, you’re missing out on several outlandish metaphors, including classics such as:
  • Plastic injection molding melted cheese into your face hole.
  • What if Jesus and Donald Trump built a house?
  • How to turn yourself from “rare to well done” and “solid to paste”.
  • Pencil Perverts.

WHY DOES THE GRIP FALL APART?
  • The Grip case is made from two materials: a polycarbonate skeleton and an elastomer frame.
  • The elastomer frame provides the majority of the case's impact protection and grip, but is prone to deformation.
  • We prevent deformation by bonding the material to a polycarbonate skeleton (i.e. the rigid back plate on the Grip case).
  • The bond between the two materials was not as strong as we'd originally anticipated, causing the elastomer to de-bond from the polycarbonate skeleton and the case to sometimes fall apart.

WHAT HAVE YOU DONE TO FIX IT?
  • Through a series of design revisions, we've made countless improvements to promote a stronger bond between the two materials.
  • These changes have incrementally reduced the failure rate of Grip cases. Our most recent SKUs are yielding extremely promising results.
  • Each time we improve the Grip case, we need to play a months-long waiting game to observe the real-world effects.

HOW ABOUT THE GRIPS YOU'VE ALREADY SOLD?
  • Since we're using you as guinea pigs for the purposes of product development, we've been uncharacteristically generous with our warranty policy.
  • However, that warranty policy only lasts as long as we have stock. Once we're out of Grips, we're out of replacements.
  • We've finally reached the point where we need to rip off the bandaid and dispose of all of our Grip stock produced during 2019.
  • If your Grip for any of these older phones falls apart, you can no longer get a replacement.
  • You should still write in to our Customer Experience team if it happens to you - we'll work something out.
  • On the bright side, our Grip SKUs from 2020 onwards have dramatically reduced, if not outright eliminated, the failure rate of previous models. We have no reported cases to date.
  • It's not economically viable to re-tool production lines to apply our improved industrial designs to any of the Grip cases that are currently marked as "Sold Out".
  • We're probably going to do it anyways.
  • We're running the simulations right now to determine which older devices will be re-tooled.
  • Take our survey to help determine which devices we'll be re-tooling.
submitted by db_inc to dbrand [link] [comments]

Game Start

In betfury.io Starting with the game. A user has the option to play in-house games, table games, slots or live casino. With this game provider being over / around a whopping 28
In-house games and slots are the most played games on the website. In-depth details on how this in-house game at Betfury works has been given in the paragraphs given below.
In-House Game and how it functions: Among the most popular games on the website are in-house games, whose list includes Dice, Mines, Plinko, HiLo, Crash, Stairs, Keno, Circle, and Coin-Flip which were recently introduced to the platform. Of all these in-house games, most of the games can be played in automatic mode. Automatic Mode is a setting where the user (player), can fix a series of options / settings such as the number of bets to be placed, stop on loss, stop on profit, increase (percentage increase) percentage or reset the number of bets placed on winnings, or, increase (percentage increase) percentage or reset the amount bet placed on loss, and finally the total amount that will be used in the bet. Visit betfury.io
submitted by reil2014 to airdropalertcom [link] [comments]

List of Known Bugs In GTA Online

To avoid multiple, repetitive post on all the bugs in GTA online, especially since the latest DLC release, this post will contain all the common bugs and will be updated as more are discovered, and when they are patched.
Posts about any of these bugs will be removed.

  1. Cannot deliver heist prep equipment: The vehicle will enter the yellow circle and nothing will happen.
  2. Cannot deliver product from businesses: The drop/delivery won't register, or you enter the delivery circle and it won't register.
  3. Cannot deliver Business Battle goods: Will not register when entering the yellow circle.
  4. Falling through the map.
  5. Getting stuck in the man trap or spawning under the map during the Casino Heist, or being disconnected.
  6. Oppressor MKI, or any car floating in the air.
  7. Flying over the water and respawning on the beach.
  8. Changing lobbies but being put back into the same one.
  9. Not receiving Elite bonuses after completing the Casino Heist.
  10. Starting a Casino Heist and having no objective point on the map, causing players to have to leave the lobby.
  11. Having to setup the Arcade again after previously doing the setup mission.
  12. Vehicles/aircraft not spawning after being requested either from the mechanic, Ms. Baker, or through the interaction menu.
  13. Nightclub technicians will stop producing certain products.
  14. Certain vehicles losing their resistance to rockets/explosives. MOC, Avenger, etc...
  15. Infinite loading screens
  16. White screening during the Casino Heist end screens.
  17. Heist cuts not being properly distributed after completing Heists.
  18. Casino Heist being stuck once you leave the arcade: Can't move, etc...
  19. Rewards in Arena Wars, or other jobs, not being properly calculated for the person in first place.
  20. Trade prices not unlocking after completing the Casino Heist.
  21. When searching for a casino heist through quick job in your cellphone, there's a chance it bugs out and upon joining the room, you're unable to see the finale board where you'd normally see the percentages and ready status.
  22. On silent and sneaky, there's a chance the guards that are supposed to be moving around and patrolling stand completely still. This is both helpful and annoying in different parts of the heist and if you haven't got duggan shipments completed, you're pretty much fucked or forced to get creative.
  23. On Big Con, sometimes the exit disguises don't spawn even though the run was done completely undetected (I've experienced this with gruppe sechs entry).
  24. When collecting daily vault, sometimes it might happen that you get stuck in the animation without being able to stop.
  25. The stockade sometimes spawns in the wrong arcade.
  26. Getting stuck in an endless dancing loop during the Casino Heist setup for the level 2 keycards.
  27. Incorrect getaway vehicles will spawn for the Casino Heist.
  28. In Sumo(Remix) the wrong team will be awarded the win.
  29. Mechanic will sometimes not spawn and the player will not be able to modify their vehicles.
  30. MC business raids not sending message to players.
  31. Dying during the explosives prep mission for the Casino heist can lead to a long, or infinite respawn.
  32. During the Prison Break Heist Rashkovsky will not move, be invisible, or die after parachuting from the plane at the end of the Heist.

Please report bugs directly to Rockstar You can also link this post to them as well.
If you have lost money due to a bug, please open a support ticket

Please leave any other bugs you've encountered in the comments below and they may be added to the above list, but please note that this is not meant to be a discussion thread, it's meant to list common bugs so players who encounter them know they are not the only ones experiencing them.
Any comments/replies beyond simply listing a bug will be removed, and the user may be temporarily banned from the sub.
Before leaving a comment, please review the above list, and the comments below to see if what you're about to post has already been listed or commented on.
If you see a comment with the same bug you've experienced, please upvote it so we can see how many others are also experiencing that issue.
submitted by PapaXan to gtaonline [link] [comments]

Can we Re-Size the sections on the Wheel for accuracy? [Explanation in Body]

Can we Re-Size the sections on the Wheel for accuracy? [Explanation in Body]

https://preview.redd.it/q5t721g2o7261.png?width=1548&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f9b2463e9823889a1681097857be8ba0db12687
TLDR: The wheel is split into 8 sections, making the visual appearance of a 12.5% chance of hitting any option. The coveted 3k Diamonds, 60 Tricks, or 195 Coins included. However we all know as players we do not have that percentage of a chance to hit those. Can we make those sections smaller to be more accurate then?
I'd like to start by saying that I'm not complaining as a sore loser. I'm always an active player who plays every event, has the Mafia Club Membership, and spend 1,200-1,600 diamonds on every event. This week's casino event and the sushi event are my last favorites as far as fun, and the fact that I do my best and still often don't get 100% milestones. Still love all the keys I get though. (Brothel & the New Weed Farm are my favorite though)
So back to the point of the post.... Can we redesign the wheel on this game for accuracy? We all know that the wheel will have an already of "RNG" but I would feel about better if it was more accurately displayed. I understand the circled items in my image above are the most coveted of the prizes. So the chances of winning them are slim, especially the diamonds. The game however is not doing anything to hide how rare these spins are though. I have had weekend where I have spun over 75 spins, possibly more like over 100, but I have not hit on one of the best 3 spins yet which would be:
  • 60 Tricks
  • 3k Diamonds
  • 195 Coins
By percentage, the way the wheel is laid out, there's a 1:8 chance (12.5% chance) of hitting these. As players we ALL know that's not the case and we will not be that lucky, but can the dev's atleast change the wheel to represent more accurately how these spins will play out? I've hit 65 Coins in the past, and 60 Tricks twice in one weekend once, but for this weekend, to have spun over 100 times, not hitting on any of the above even once is a statistical anomaly, which would just make me as a player feel better if those tiles to hit big are just smaller so i know the percentages arent really 12.5%.
Odd thing to complain about, I know, but I think it makes sense. Anyone else agree?

Side Note: Sucks that I have spun so many times and am looking like I am not going to complete all my milestones because I have not gotten enough tricks to have any level 10 tricks yet and had all businesses open and automated as of mid day Saturday.
submitted by DataMan23 to idlemafiagame [link] [comments]

9uVDg_jg_jA

the cosmopolitan six thousand five hundred dollar bank the bonus live play tonight last night you guys wanted some mighty cash i found you a mighty cash double up look at those numbers that we're working with same format last night we do 500 tickets however some of my tickets are a thousand bucks they're just easier that way so i'll have to do some uh thinking and uh math but i get kerry here to help me out and i got all my lovely and fans so ticket starts at a thousand dollars so we're not gonna go below 500 guys so this one should be pretty easy max volume bank the bonus live play 13.50 a spin [Music] mighty cash double up let's see this haywire five or more for the bonus [Music] mr classic tv says punky power thank you mr classic tv oh yeah mr classic tv i think you won one of those blenders or um mixers but i need to get your address so send me an email or message me on facebook so i know jimmy d won the other mixer but i'm pretty sure you are the other winner so i want to get that sent out to you yes haywire we got something big oh 45 bucks good ones big one oh i couldn't drop like the maxi because it doubles up [Music] wait there we go [Music] and carrie we trust so we're gonna have him hit the button all right gary [Music] wow that's huge let's keep getting these red ones yes this is not bad red [Music] that wasn't a good spin but if your first two are pretty solid so i forgive you [Music] yolanda rory love you bry mighty cash is the best i love you too yolanda hopefully it will come to new york here soon yeah this is a decent oh yolanda which one do i pick yolanda's picking guys left right middle if yolanda's in here we'll give her a first chance to pick one two or three your left middle right yolanda i'm gonna wait for her i am i'm in plenty of time [Music] i'm a no hurry this is a nice little bonus yolanda gets to pick [Music] leland assistant too all right here it is shoot that's fine all right let's do it anything filled up down there okay extra 13.50 [Music] yes too bad we couldn't fill that up this is not a bad little hit i'll do some ticket math later on because uh i had a thousand dollar ticket but a good start yesterday we started off great and then it went south and if smaller bets work we'll do smaller bets but i am getting some revenge on that 25 cash code it's a jackpot to start the night what do you know [Music] yolanda has no reason to be sorry how's the picture quality everybody we have one person keep saying bad picture but everybody else says [Music] [Music] nothing [Music] all right let me see if i can uh [Music] all right [Music] all right is that good now how does that look perfect all right couple backup spins come on please please please [Music] backup spins galore i saw it go by too all right two thousand dollars will be the ending point [Music] all right first game get a win nice start all right so this ticket guys oh cougar girls 9.99 super justice happy new year all right i reset it i don't know what else to do so i did reset the wi-fi i mean the picture i am at mercy of the casino and romeo evan welcome to the bod rubber ducky club all right guys since um the same ticket so five hundred dollars again i've got these thousand dollar tickets i have to use them twice so the floor is going to be 1500 all right all right 17 16 a spin [Music] that's huge 300 that's good [Music] [Applause] yep i i work with what i have so [Music] maybe it'll get better but i did reset it twice after that i can't do much i apologize but i'm working with what they have but thank you to 800 people watching one more [Music] open this pot 24. [Music] 40 bucks [Music] yes scott i just re-logged into wi-fi for the third time i did reset it and i reset it again so [Applause] [Music] all right before the bonus i'll see if i can fix the wi-fi whoops 73. if you're winning with that well i find it just keep it that way give me one second guys this is my best four games [Music] which one do you guys look all right which one should i pick i've never done this thank you raja what do you guys want [Music] miss mary brian thank you for the live play i really activity oh thank you miss mary [Music] coins [Music] all right coins all coins come on yes oh we're going to do something on the left [Music] chris had patches behind me for me hey one more time i logged out i forgot the network and i logged back in [Music] guys not much i can do guys so the i'm doing the best i can but tell me it's blurry and tell me it's unwatchable and you're gonna unsubscribe above and beyond because i don't control the wi-fi you're gonna unsubscribe from my channel uh i'm not trying to be negative here but don't say crap like that that's just not cool all right guys i'm doing the best i can to give you guys some bonus live play and kyle sell data does not work at all in vegas anyways we got a bonus 776 dollars all right there's some backup spans the floor we'll get 2800 2750 2800 we'll see how it goes and we'll do the top up if we hit it [Music] all right so 27.50 is gonna be the floor so the first thousand in we're gonna have at least 27.50 so that's a great start tonight the pot is a little over 6500 but that's what the tickets i had available was they're gonna make that work but thank you all for tuning in thank you for you know the watching the earlier live play and we got a super chat herbert d brian you're doing fine ignore the complaint all right one more spin and we're gonna cash out so far it's a good little start [Music] all right let's move what do you guys want to see next is my lucky players card [Music] so [Music] those are not multi-dino [Music] yep how you doing yeah i hope so i reset it again it's still really bad i i re-logged in crushing it you hit reconnect i hit reconnect yeah it's still brilliant now all right we're back live all right thank you all right guys garager just help me out it's great usually for a little bit and then it kind of sputters out all right guys how about some konami konami time [Music] [Music] it can go to a hotel you go to hotel next all right and play konami games radiant witch 15 to spin so the floor on this game is gonna be 500. because it's a thousand dollar ticket let's do it guys but thank you all for tuning in hey brian i got a super chat for you one dollar lucky super chat from jose all right usually the usually for a super chat has to be at least 1.99 or higher to say anything doesn't want it we'll try one this is going in the community pot there we go so now you're in action you have a point one tenth of a percentage all right taxi 10 000. yeah we need to go to the other one all right we're gonna try the hotel one all right we're gonna try one more wi-fi guys i apologize all right all right last try guys after this we're just gonna wing it but waffs 73 in bod we trust thank you wasps genomes just keep crushing it all right guys if i missed a super chat then i did do my best doing my best all right here we go it's an iphone 12 pro mac so it should the phone's not the issue here oh i think it was one away from that symbol nice you love silver lucky 25 super super chat flip phone it's a motorola gopro i have no idea come on three or more bonus symbols may trigger the money galaxy feature oh you're not like that okay [Music] we switched the wi-fi network so hopefully guys hopefully this helps it's holding up so we'll take it at this point jose ah i tried [Music] guys it has nothing to do with the camera on the phone it's the wifi [Music] chris pat you're doing great brian of data oh that's my new name brian of data 9150 so i heard you made a killing in the stock market today had a good day you guys haven't checked out raja makes money the mods have been actually posting the link so thank you mod for doing that come on kanami give me some heck yeah [Music] gosh you guys i might have to cancel live play early tonight if i have to keep modding for myself [Music] come on it's due [Music] uh now i get that radiant witch symbol when i don't need it yep once again [Music] well i would go play it and that's that's it that's the 500 mark so [Music] all right let's keep moving on guys [Music] now um somebody specifically told me i should go play high stakes [Music] you know what maybe he'll do some video poker since carrie's here tonight how would you guys want to see some ultimate at the video poker i think that could be fun 1250 spin max that volume out yay or nay on video poker oops stephen hall he requested this game tonight so he got it apple alert for guys tonight 5 30 ah so close 5 30 pacific time you know what i did really good on last night was uh one more that uh i hit those two nice jackpots on uh also environment really i haven't if we went at one more and open up the taco that is like another four i never have like an ultimate fire like played it again last night but the last couple ever since i started playing that another one ultra hot megalink i didn't go to those now they've done these whole shows okay i never liked it because i never got the bonus but now we've got all these great bonuses they're gonna take 5 30 guys the big jackpot will be live on the main facebook page with youtube live play to follow at six o'clock pacific time [Music] yes we got a bonus see what happens when i push the button all right big one here we go carrie go ahead and hit the button carrie terry first lucky raja high rollers i had to mix it up it didn't work for me yesterday all right raja your turn your turn nah all right jose hit the button [Music] okay there we go that's 125 for jose tracy says i feel bbb coming for b.o.d well we believe in b.o.d everybody hit the thumbs up jose you're on the roll ready another 125. you're fired i'm fired i'll come in and save the day all right come on all right you're in all right here we go there you go that's all you guys are worth 25. oh this is 50 cents it's 12 minutes all right carrie you're back in it come on 62.50 jose tagging you back in you're hired again come on that's this is a brd spin oh okay there it is all right same as the raja come on nature just drop it oh really i carry you're back in [Music] all right jose we'll worry about the price of the grand if we come to that all right it comes down to body [Applause] that's something 362. [Music] it is but yours is a lot tighter mine's maybe the spring's gone or something [Applause] [Music] all right backup spins we'll play it down to what 500. how does that sound that sounds great thank you one more sorry he's live right now [Music] ma'am it's 45 dollars i'm sorry that's my gunnery jose my agent told me that all right big congratulations to the quick father he's not going to be with us tonight and right when we got done playing about one o'clock last night went to the room get a good night's sleep at three o'clock he sent me a message he had to get an uber for a five-hour drive back to california he missed his baby being born that's why we picked this date early in the month because baby was due on the 18th so we're like okay two weeks plenty of time you know get home and yeah out of nowhere last night all right guys what do you think we should play next all right autumn moon let's do it ah guys i do not really charge 45 dollars a photo you guys can believe whatever you want this one's due i'm into this game for at least a thousand bucks i get this one two oh the better match yeah no no but this one yesterday all right here we go twenty dollars to spend fifty four hundred dollar major hundred and three thousand dollar grand this is slower than like that first [Music] so the floor is 500 on this game unless we decide to play a second round on it so thousand dollar ticket in the floor come on what whoa no oh i thought you had it oh wow how did you screw that up very easily oh i thought i had it thousands left what happened to that 20 orb what happened to that 20 dollar orb tracy if jose twerks upside down like naomi there will be mega booms wow you've been requesting the twerk upside down [Music] diane mccall says whatever rajo says about you after i fell for the malaria hoax [Laughter] so diane mccall says she doesn't believe anything you say about me after she fell for the malaria hoax when you told everybody i had malaria b.o.d uh brandon true b.o.d ah what what grand did you hit the other day when the raja was live it's probably the same as me having malaria whatever that's worth [Music] it's no minor finally [Music] the good news is i don't have malaria currently but the question is are you going to fall asleep 2 000. i knew this game was due ah yeah come on keeping it alive [Music] now i pumped well over a thousand bucks in this game last night [Music] plus in the group paul we didn't do too well either [Music] [Applause] thousand right [Music] oh here it comes 103 000 live let me at least see it i did not see it i got my glasses on and i don't see it again the drama it's left-handed does it work nope i need to mix it up is that what you do in the bedroom people got jokes today come on [Music] hopefully we keep playing well i can pay off my markers it'll be nice [Music] that's something is that tick-tock tick-tock well i only have one phone unlike some people wow you guys both have one phone wait we got so many girls and tracy d if you don't mind sending me a photos later on of all the jackpots thank you all right so the floor is gonna be three thousand bucks one more moon there's still good line hit john johnson boom boom boom in bod's room that's right [Music] yeah this machine was definitely due after i mean carrie watched me struggle on this game last night i mean struggle one more i knew this game had to do a comeback hi there how you doing today good how are you i'm doing well you can't do recording what did this gentleman tell you i'm spitting fake news again i'm gonna have to call security on you that wouldn't be the first time yeah they called him last time when he had those prostitutes you grabbed his hands on his feet caesar's palace was not a good day remember caesar's palace and that lady i was tracy says i'm waiting jose you got this bee all right cash it out so this yeah so yeah this was a new this was a fresh ticket jimmy beauty on ajita keep it up i got your hoodie in my room during his live play i'll get it for you all right cash cove 25 a spin so the floor is just under 2 500. purple and gold saw it's nice wind keep it up i'm going to purple gold and i got jimmy d there you go all right all right so the floor is like 2 400 and change what doesn't want my ticket i did this yesterday too gaming machine unable to redeem at this time that was weird and it took it cash go 25 to spend cash cove just under 2 400 sorry just under 2 500. come on make up make up for you so 24 in change [Music] 100 dollars get it oh but thank you to all the mods help out thank you to kerry all aboard or luxury line tiffany j beauty great live stream can you play some cats all right we'll do cats after this [Music] no thank you nope i'm doing well not drinking anything so i'm gonna hold off as long as we keep winning i will not have a sip of water the entire livestream i am very superstitious [Music] what did he get nice jose is on ajita as tracy d would say this ticket will be put in the bank after this machine is over that's a great observation [Music] [Music] doesn't want me to quit this game i guess no okay there you go all right couple more spins not gonna go below 2400 come on come on all right final spin on this game cash an hour all right all right so that i think it's done all right we're gonna put another thousand dollar ticket in so once again the floor is gonna be um 500 bucks i didn't have to didn't have time to break down the tickets cats here it is somebody wanted cats to send a super chat and i haven't done cats in a while so [Music] 15 to spin [Music] yes that's it i thought it looked it looked a lot better in my mind sometimes the lower bets work better that's a pay line on 15. oh fine don't have to convince me it looks like if i'm a game manufacturer i'm making 15 lines that's not one of mine [Music] yeah of all the games being different heights different angles it's not always the easiest sometimes to uh that's it fifteen all right 30 that's fine 30 bucks on cats ah 200 nice [Music] come on bank the bonus that's good huh 400. nice [Music] that's right johnny milwaukee loves all the games that have cats in it kitty glitter miss kitty [Music] bonus [Music] [Music] what do you think should i play 45 a spin on catch or keep it here at 30. 500 is the floor we're going for that bonus oh yeah 250. i'll tell you what we'll do actually choose the max you can only play 30 bucks so by default oh bonus nope no nope gina anyway can you play black widow uh maybe you'll do some black widow i'll tell you what since we're doing well in the game we'll i don't want to lose any money on this game so we'll set the floor in a thousand bucks so we guarantee we don't lose any money playing cats [Music] i hate to do well in the machine and go broke trying to hit the bonus so [Music] come on okay 200 just for that [Music] and if we break the two 2000 mark maybe he'll set a floor above that come on full screen say meow i likey [Music] so if the raja ever tells you something about me 95 of the time it's not true he said you were an awesome individual b.o.d yep see told you now he knows better than joke about my dogs so oh yeah that's like the one thing he knows so if he says something about my dogs that may be true but besides that i never had malaria [Music] what's not a pay line but this jagged thing is that's bs hey ben hello [Music] don't get called on me kitty cats [Music] all right um is black widow on here all right this game's getting cold i'm going to use this extra 186 dollars for black widow so the forum black widow's still going to be 500. i so whatever that's worth executive vod decision [Music] forty dollars to spend on black widow [Music] the floor is at 500 on the game he's taking some of that extra money [Music] all right a black widow floor is five hundred dollars oh there's yep i that's a lot of people say i look like the purple guy in black widow they're the pink guy does that look like b.o.d what do you guys think i think it is they modeled it after me maybe that's right the raja this is his favorite game because he gets to see me all the time [Music] wow cheryl clark blackwidow be nice to b.o.d thank you we don't think we had a single playback of anything on black widow yet [Music] not a single does black widow hate b.o.d looks like ben affleck oh there we go on the last spin it pays 160 says don't quit on me [Music] ah mark wahlberg all right final spin and we're putting this ticket in the bank for cats and black widow so cats and black widow is done now i did play some um dancing drums earlier today and i got killed 2 000 down on dancing drums so based on that it's dancing drums revenge [Music] time [Music] yeah i saw my afternoon live play we did play some dancing drums so what do i got left 500 500 500 000 so 6500 in tickets i have 2500 left let's just make it easy to put a 500 ticket here so once again guys i had to get some thousand dollar tickets i couldn't get the 500 so that's why we used some tickets twice 1760 a bet and we're going for three if we get it we're going for three the last three games we haven't done anything so we're due for another bonus here jimbo come on drums let's see a bonus i agree timbo so the mini's at 178 miners 626 that seems awfully high you son of a yeah majors at 9 000 yeah we're going for three because that's what i said all right here we go all right big money there we go that's it [Music] yes oh one more dragon that helped 120 yeah 360. [Music] all right 660 dollar bonus [Music] all right we're gonna play some more uh like 750 floor on this game we need some backup spins let's get another bonus [Music] you know screw it we'll do the mystery if we get it again that sounds fine with me mystery if we get another bonus i just hit five drums [Music] all right final spin unless we hit something um [Music] all right whoops says uh [Music] top dollar let's do it [Music] a lot of people like the double top dollar [Music] yeah 210 dollars to spend sorry 10 dollars a credit 20 [Music] we've been doing better on the lower d knobs right now so [Music] she says always double she's an expert so yeah 10's on there i'm putting a thousand dollar ticket in so the floor will be 500. [Music] so it's 20 dollars yes we did some higher spins earlier going backwards still good slide play [Music] carla howard says good luck tonight hashtag bonus time hope you're staying warm up there [Music] carla [Music] oh [Music] [Music] is my card working all right let's see this top dollar logo [Music] so close there we go [Music] almost 2 000 people watching thank you guys for tuning in tonight make the bonus live play from the cosmopolitan las vegas hit that subscribe button keep notifications on because sometimes i do surprise live play like this morning last spin [Music] and i did some like hundred dollar huffing puff this morning all right let's move on to some pinball [Music] two credit pinball we'll do 20 to spin on this too yes we'll do the video poker [Music] let's set pinball yeah uh these old school pinballs you can't see them anymore you don't find them much all the casinos that have them do not get rid of them looks like the new pinball they have it's a little different format 20 to spin so with a three credit pinball you get five shots with two credit pinball you get four [Music] that was 250 okay give this some more ammo to hit this pinball come on come on [Music] ah so close we have 1500 left after this the big jackpot will be live at 5 30 pacific time so [Music] and maybe i'll do some surprise late night live play tonight you never know that's why you have to subscribe and click those notifications on if i do like it yeah yeah it's something i was waiting for like yeah eight grand i'm like my like time just kind of stopped okay for me i'm like is it gonna happen [Music] it is what time what time is it carrie right now i think about five o'clock or so so it's 4 45 yes there we go uh i think i'm gonna keep the ten dollar genome it's working i hate to blow through everything on the twenty five dollar d numb we ain't broke i rather win a little bit of money on a smaller bet than lose more money on a larger bet [Music] yeah maybe some we'll see late no promises i did a surprise live play this afternoon [Music] and it's not a surprise if i tell you happy new year b.o.d and good luck well thank you sonny happy new year to you come on pinball get a couple decent line hips golden nugget that's a casino we're at the cosmopolitan is there a game called golden nugget oh yeah [Music] what was your biggest hit um nice on 15 bets yeah can't beat that [Music] i know where a wild wild nugget is but um some guy last night kept saying wild wild nugget the whole time and it really gave me bad juju and we lost so no wild wild nugget tonight i'm not a fan of that game anyways but we got a come on bonus 80. okay 250 it's a good start come on 80 80 no 500 bucks come on 80 80. [Music] [Applause] all right we're at 8 40. like 7 60 something like that get it five back upstairs legit whoops taught me so my final spin okay cash now [Music] 1500 left [Music] carrie and i gonna play some video poker for five thirty dollars to spin ultimate x video poker scary carry and body now beauty is gonna make the best choices oh thank you for that i'll do the best i can i got carrie here so we'll [Music] oh i didn't sorry i was um live when you texted me oh you're fine [Music] thank you thank you do you want a cosmopolitan no no no hold nothing or yeah all right oh so i was playing this earlier i got dealt four to the royal correct carry yeah i got dealt four to the royal i had a four-time multiplier up top or something and of course i did not hit it we'll be back to slots after this open ender all right seven queens [Music] maybe i should have held the aces michael alphonse in the house check out live stream casino shenanigans on facebook featuring michael halphon nothing all right the no holds barred anything goes facebook gambling drinking debauchery group sanders lodge shared the length thank you okay in order here we go oh come on give us something here come on [Music] all right here we go four to the flush let's hit this yeah look at the next all right come on four of a kind wherever oh come on oh come on top here okay guys all right come on could be eight thousand dollars it could be all right here we go a little dramatic pause come on twenty thousand dollars here it comes [Music] oh man yep yeah i got del four to the royal with the multiplier i had a couple good deals today [Music] here we go [Music] all right here we go come on four of a kind four of a kind king queen [Music] hey quads there we go oh cheers that's why i got somebody else here [Music] maybe if i do a late night it'd be all video poker live stream it's a possibility if anybody wants to do a video poker with me tonight maybe i'm going for it oh you just look at it [Music] okay so it's open ender too yeah so you need a two or seven eclipse [Music] there we go [Applause] 2500 [Music] all right [Music] nice all right so we're at 28 10. i'll probably play down 2 500 or so yeah um come on here it comes guys let's play for a miracle carry i'm good right yeah ah tyler smith the b.o.d for president carrie lee for vp i like it okay let's do it again come on four of a kind [Music] [Music] [Music] yes sir oh come on four aces come on [Music] [Music] okay that's right it's lacey from the slot ladies the one and only will she go live tonight i don't know if you guys want to send her money on only fans i think she may go live again tonight but hopefully is that how you send people money oh yeah so if you check out lacey's instagram and tracyd or whoever has it share it in the chat and on instagram they have your cash app in there so if somebody wants to send lacey 100 bucks or she gets up to 500 tonight i think she may go live again [Music] oh somebody sent you 100 you just need 400 more all right that sounds fair and whoever sends the most money can pick the game [Music] it'd probably be after the big jackpot tonight probably directly after before the group poll [Music] it actually was good she told me my left arm was sore because my right arm was tight [Music] yeah i had the hundred minute in the end well worth it eight times there we go anything i have a mask on my braces oh there we go can we get the flush can we get a flush ah yeah that's a good way to end it positive money and tracy d thank you mod tracy just shared lacey's instagram so just to confirm her cash app is linked in the buy over instagram right yeah all right so if she gets 500 tonight 400 more she will be going live [Music] am i down only 500 left yeah i guess i'm only at 500 left tonight wow i thought it had more oh yeah we had the thousand between those two machines right so what do we want to do for the last so let me think about schmidt i put 500 in there 500 here okay we all know what's going to happen last guys 25 spins huff and puff [Music] that's right guys huff and puff to end the night and wild wild nugget is being played i was going to end it tonight in a wild wild nugget but some gentleman is playing it so i can't do that yep 25 spins we're doing well we're gonna do 25 spins we did it yesterday for a thousand bucks we couldn't hit so maybe it's due that that logic worked on the uh what game did the logic were gone oh autumn moon we lost yesterday all right here we go 25 spins huff and puff let's do it um yeah maybe some late night live play i'll talk to some people and figure out a game plan there's no promises [Music] well i got some money to throw in the pot it could be video poker who knows two more yeah yeah there we go by the way we're gonna end it we got backup spins all right i'm excited yesterday was terrible today is much much better one more oops man i didn't mean to do that [Music] oh come on don't be like that it is going to be like that we got backup spin so there's one point we just want a coin [Music] ouch and the actual three games only played seven dollars and fifty cents it was bad [Music] 500 bucks will be the floor [Music] thank you that was not a good bonus nope nope nope [Music] come on the volume is maxed out that is not the issue what are you gonna do one more spin to end the night on bank the bonus live play i don't i would like to play it through but i don't know if that's fair because everybody has to agree on it so based on that um i'm okay thank you though so but guys thank you so much on behalf of b.o.d scary carrie and lacey we will see you soon remember check her out on instagram camera's on you just let you know oh hi taking my these are not i can't walk in them so i'm switching all right so check her out on instagram if she gets 500 today she's going live and you pick the game if you're the highest donor and also check her out on only fans so all right guys thanks to glot and i will see you guys later on maybe late night tonight bye
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